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Old 08-15-2021, 01:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m1a1mg View Post
We weren't really doing any of that. Terrorists just moved next door to Pakistan. Which is, and has been, a larger terrorist threat than Afghanistan. We may have won the majority of the battles, but lost the war. You're thinking more tactical than strategic. Staying in 100 years wouldn't have changed anything.




Oh the hyperbole. None, zero, nada of the 9/11 terrorists came from Afghanistan. They came from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Almost all the funding came from Saudi Arabia. We attacked Afghanistan and Iraq. Sure there were Al Q cells in Afghanistan. You know why? We created them to defeat the Russians.



Oh the hyperbole part two. I'd suggest reading more. We are very active in counter-Intel against sleeper cells and also in foreign hostile nations. Leaving Afghanistan didn't change a thing in the terrorist world. It just moved the GPS coordinates.

I fully support your right to believe what you want. Just don't believe that because you think it, that it's right.
Just because the operators were an Egyptian or a Saudi as opposed to an Afghan is meaningless. The leadership, Al Qaeda was in AFG. There will be command and control there again. The Taliban just emptied all the jails. There are now thousands of potential terrorists running free in AFG right now.

Not sure why you are trying to downplay the Taliban taking over in AFG? That’s very bad for the rest of the world, and you surely know this.

The country that’s going to be the first to feel the negative effects of Taliban rule in AFG? Pakistan. This has emboldened the TPP, and they will restart their terror bombing campaigns inside Pakistan. It will spread from there.

You don’t have to believe me now, but you will believe someday.
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Old 08-16-2021, 09:42 AM
 
Location: South of Cakalaki
5,726 posts, read 4,715,104 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WK91 View Post
Just because the operators were an Egyptian or a Saudi as opposed to an Afghan is meaningless. The leadership, Al Qaeda was in AFG. There will be command and control there again. The Taliban just emptied all the jails. There are now thousands of potential terrorists running free in AFG right now.

Not sure why you are trying to downplay the Taliban taking over in AFG? That’s very bad for the rest of the world, and you surely know this.

The country that’s going to be the first to feel the negative effects of Taliban rule in AFG? Pakistan. This has emboldened the TPP, and they will restart their terror bombing campaigns inside Pakistan. It will spread from there.

You don’t have to believe me now, but you will believe someday.
No, I won't. I'm obviously way better briefed on the strategic implications.

I trained ETT's that went to Afghanistan. They came back from their mission, and almost to a man, said the Afghan forces would never fight the Taliban. We attempted to construct a Western democracy in a country that would never accept it. It's all about the tribes.

So, when the Taliban were kicked out of Afghanistan, where did they go? To the tribal areas of Pakistan.

What's in Pakistan? Sunni run schools (madrassa) financed by the Saudi's. Because you may have had terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, the main base was in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Until we cut the head off the terror threat, it did not matter. And the moment we took our eyes off the ball and invaded Iraq (Who had zero to do with terrorists).
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Old 08-16-2021, 11:17 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m1a1mg View Post
No, I won't. I'm obviously way better briefed on the strategic implications.

I trained ETT's that went to Afghanistan. They came back from their mission, and almost to a man, said the Afghan forces would never fight the Taliban. We attempted to construct a Western democracy in a country that would never accept it. It's all about the tribes.

So, when the Taliban were kicked out of Afghanistan, where did they go? To the tribal areas of Pakistan.

What's in Pakistan? Sunni run schools (madrassa) financed by the Saudi's. Because you may have had terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, the main base was in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Until we cut the head off the terror threat, it did not matter. And the moment we took our eyes off the ball and invaded Iraq (Who had zero to do with terrorists).
I agree with what you wrote about why the Afghans wouldn’t fight the Taliban, I also agree about Pakistan.

But those points have nothing to do with my original point.

They emptied the jails, they can now operate out in the open once again, not just staying hidden in Pakistan.

You seem to think that the Taliban taking over means nothing as far as potential future attacks? I’m not really sure what your point is?

But many estimates state that Al Qaeda and other groups can be fully reconstituted to what they were pre-9/11 within 2 years. I think it will be even sooner than that.

I think we should’ve sat indefinitely in AFG, propping up the puppet government.

South Korea wasn’t capable in 1970 of defending themselves, which was 20 years of us being there. They would’ve fallen very quickly without us. They didn’t start to be capable until around the year 2000, which was 50 years of us being in country. They weren’t even capable of running simple helicopter patrols on the DMZ the first 40 years we were there.

That’s what I mean when I write that who knows what AFG could’ve become 20 or 30 years from now if we stayed like we did in Korea.
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Old 08-16-2021, 01:04 PM
 
Location: South of Cakalaki
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We could have stayed 100 years. Afghanistan is a western world construct. There are too many tribes representing too many sub sects of Islam to ever be any different.

The only thing different now will be camps in Pakistan AND Afghanistan. It will not change the terror threat one iota.

Until we chop the head off of the terror beast, it will continue to exist. Simple answer, let's leave the Middle East completely and let them figure it out. We haven't done such a great job of nation building anywhere there.
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Old 08-16-2021, 02:32 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m1a1mg View Post
We could have stayed 100 years. Afghanistan is a western world construct. There are too many tribes representing too many sub sects of Islam to ever be any different.

The only thing different now will be camps in Pakistan AND Afghanistan. It will not change the terror threat one iota.

Until we chop the head off of the terror beast, it will continue to exist. Simple answer, let's leave the Middle East completely and let them figure it out. We haven't done such a great job of nation building anywhere there.
The problem with just leaving the AOR completely is that they won’t stop trying to attack us. They hate our way of life, and not to digress too much, but our style of living is very decadent and harmful. When you’ve got doctors practicing gender changes on children, I think that’s gone too far.

But getting back to the point, I think our presence in the Middle East is a good thing. If we weren’t in Syria, they would’ve blown up the oil fields. In Iraq, I think it was a moral obligation, plus Hussein was an annoyance. In addition to him thumbing his nose at inspectors and challenging the no fly zones, he also attempted to assassinate our President. After the first Gulf War, we didn’t go far enough and take him out, and he ended up butchering tens of thousands of Kurds and Shia. The GCC countries are shining examples of what countries can become, and we helped them. We also prop up the Saudi royal family, because that’s a scary thought of what they would be with the Wahabbists in charge.

I could go on and on, but we do more good than harm in the Middle East. Except when we cut and run in Afghanistan. That’s going to end up being bad for everyone. One thing I’ve noticed is basically universal condemnation for what Biden has just done.

If it was up to me, I’d reoccupy Bagram, Kandahar, and all the other bases and continue fighting the good fight. I’d keep the minimum amount of troops there to keep the Taliban at bay, and try to spend as less as possible there. Afghanistan should be just one of 11 Middle East countries that we are based in.
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Old 08-16-2021, 02:45 PM
 
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Originally Posted by m1a1mg View Post
It never mattered. We spent 20 years there, untold amounts of money, and even more human capital knowing full well that in the end, this would be the result. What should have been 6 months of bombings, strategic insertions, and blockades turned into our longest "war". And for what?
A lot of people got really really rich: “the war” is very good for some.
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Old 08-16-2021, 04:46 PM
 
Location: South of Cakalaki
5,726 posts, read 4,715,104 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WK91 View Post
The problem with just leaving the AOR completely is that they won’t stop trying to attack us. They hate our way of life, and not to digress too much, but our style of living is very decadent and harmful. When you’ve got doctors practicing gender changes on children, I think that’s gone too far.

But getting back to the point, I think our presence in the Middle East is a good thing. If we weren’t in Syria, they would’ve blown up the oil fields. In Iraq, I think it was a moral obligation, plus Hussein was an annoyance. In addition to him thumbing his nose at inspectors and challenging the no fly zones, he also attempted to assassinate our President. After the first Gulf War, we didn’t go far enough and take him out, and he ended up butchering tens of thousands of Kurds and Shia. The GCC countries are shining examples of what countries can become, and we helped them. We also prop up the Saudi royal family, because that’s a scary thought of what they would be with the Wahabbists in charge.

I could go on and on, but we do more good than harm in the Middle East. Except when we cut and run in Afghanistan. That’s going to end up being bad for everyone. One thing I’ve noticed is basically universal condemnation for what Biden has just done.

If it was up to me, I’d reoccupy Bagram, Kandahar, and all the other bases and continue fighting the good fight. I’d keep the minimum amount of troops there to keep the Taliban at bay, and try to spend as less as possible there. Afghanistan should be just one of 11 Middle East countries that we are based in.
Well, it seems we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Be well.
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Old 08-18-2021, 11:46 AM
 
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Originally Posted by m1a1mg View Post
Seriously, this never ending cluster should have ended 10 years ago. The Russians couldn't hold it with brutality and now we can't hold it with COIN. It's time to let it be what it's going to be. A dump.
Something just does not add up in your comment about Russian “brutality”.

How come then that Russian installed government lasted nearly 7 years after the Russians left vs US installed government left while the US military group was still there?

Another comparison: we have shutdown our embassy already- before the Taliban even entered the capital.

The Russian Embassy is still open as far as I know- they are not evacuating

I looked up the official reason that made the Russians leave the Afghanistan in 1989- they said that their Constitution- USSR at the time- did not allow them “the interference into internal affairs of other countries.”

When half of the country became under the Taliban in 1989 and half was under the Russian friendly government who officially had military assistance pact with the USSR- the Russians said- it is the same as a civil war in the country- and they could not support just half of the population of Afghanistan…

That was an official explanation- not that they “lost” the war.
In their mind it was not the war, but military assistance to a friendly government next to their border.

Last edited by L00k4ward; 08-18-2021 at 11:56 AM..
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Old 08-18-2021, 01:05 PM
 
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Originally Posted by m1a1mg View Post
Well, it seems we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Be well.
Mitch MCConnell made a very good point about all this. Not trying to turn this political, and I’m certainly not a fan of McConnell at all. In fact, I don’t like it when I agree with McConnell on anything.

But here is what he said:

“I argued against the withdrawal with Trump, too. And simply the fact that Trump announced we were gonna leave in May 2021. Didn’t mean President Biden had to do it too.”

He also stated, “We had 2500 troops in place and we were keeping a pretty good lid on everything, we were keeping the Taliban in check. We hadn’t had a military death in 18 months. It was working and we should’ve stayed.”

“The likelihood of Al Qaeda returning to Afghanistan to plot attacks is growing.”

I 100% agree with everything McConnell said.

But it is moot at this point. Afghanistan is lost, we are all demoralized. It’s over and we will feel the effects of this for many years.

Next week, we get to hear Blinken and Austin speak before Congress and try to save their own butts and perform CYA actions for their President.

I’m so disgusted by all of this. It just shouldn’t have happened like this. I doubt I’ll ever get over it.
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Old 08-19-2021, 06:12 PM
 
Location: South of Cakalaki
5,726 posts, read 4,715,104 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L00k4ward View Post
Something just does not add up in your comment about Russian “brutality”.

How come then that Russian installed government lasted nearly 7 years after the Russians left vs US installed government left while the US military group was still there?

Another comparison: we have shutdown our embassy already- before the Taliban even entered the capital.

The Russian Embassy is still open as far as I know- they are not evacuating

I looked up the official reason that made the Russians leave the Afghanistan in 1989- they said that their Constitution- USSR at the time- did not allow them “the interference into internal affairs of other countries.”

When half of the country became under the Taliban in 1989 and half was under the Russian friendly government who officially had military assistance pact with the USSR- the Russians said- it is the same as a civil war in the country- and they could not support just half of the population of Afghanistan…

That was an official explanation- not that they “lost” the war.
In their mind it was not the war, but military assistance to a friendly government next to their border.
You really need to read more. A quick introduction. https://www.npr.org/2021/08/19/10284...flict-timeline

The Soviet Union policies and the Russian policies were different.
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