What is the future of your city? (Columbus, Cleveland: neighborhoods, school)

[dustin183]

Let's face it, the rust belt overall has been losing population the past few decades as jobs have left. But it does seem that in recent years the % decline in population has slowed or bottomed.

Do you see population decline ramping back up or do you think it has bottomed and the worst is behind us? Do you think population over the next couple decades will be flat or will it increase? This will vary city by city of course, so I'm wondering how you see it play out in the various parts of Ohio.

Here are some guesses by me:

Columbus - will moderately increase
Cleveland - will be flat or slight increase
Cincinnati - flat or slight increase

Toledo - unsure - will decline continue?
Dayton - flat or slight increase
Akron - flat or slight increase

Canton - flat
Springfield - flat
Youngstown - flat or slight increase (it's fallen so far, and with new industry can increase)

I'm also curious about some of the primary cities in the lesser populated counties -

for ex,

Chillicothe
Mansfield
Zanesville
Coshocton
Athens
Lima
etc

[bjimmy24]

I think most places will be flat or increase slightly, which is really not a bad thing. Periods of quick decline and quick growth present a lot of problems.

[Natural510]

Springfield will never be more than it is, probably the same with Dayton. I think Dayton’s population will increase slightly with the creation of downtown housing and renovation of surrounding neighborhoods, but that’s about it. The Midwest in general is not a relocation destination for the rest of the country or immigrants, due to weather and lack of “excitement” you might find on the East Coast, so the answer should be the same for most Midwestern cities.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by Natural510

Springfield will never be more than it is, probably the same with Dayton. I think Dayton’s population will increase slightly with the creation of downtown housing and renovation of surrounding neighborhoods, but that’s about it. The Midwest in general is not a relocation destination for the rest of the country or immigrants, due to weather and lack of “excitement” you might find on the East Coast, so the answer should be the same for most Midwestern cities.

I think the coasts are kinda losing a lot of steam. Seems to be a lot of info regarding migration trends and none of it looks good for the east coast.

Found this interesting:
https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About...ration-Growth/

[Natural510]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

I think the coasts are kinda losing a lot of steam. Seems to be a lot of info regarding migration trends and none of it looks good for the east coast.

Found this interesting:
https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About...ration-Growth/

Wow that’s surprising. Not surprising that people are leaving dense cities during a pandemic, but it seems everyone is moving to the hot states in the South & Southwest because no one wants to wear a jacket in winter anymore.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by Natural510

Wow that’s surprising. Not surprising that people are leaving dense cities during a pandemic, but it seems everyone is moving to the hot states in the South & Southwest because no one wants to wear a jacket in winter anymore.

Ohio was #4 though.

I don't think the pandemic has as much to do with it as people might want to think.

[midwest1]

I think both Butler county citues, Middletown and Hamilton will see slight growth. They are ideally positioned to benefit from the merger of Cin/Day. Downtown Hamilton in particular is seeing pretty impressive housing growth.

[Kerby W-R]

I believe we are going to continue to improve. This is a beautiful place and I look forward to our future.

[dustin183]

Originally Posted by Natural510

Springfield will never be more than it is, probably the same with Dayton. I think Dayton’s population will increase slightly with the creation of downtown housing and renovation of surrounding neighborhoods, but that’s about it. The Midwest in general is not a relocation destination for the rest of the country or immigrants, due to weather and lack of “excitement” you might find on the East Coast, so the answer should be the same for most Midwestern cities.

There seems to be a wide variance between different cities.

For example,

From 2010-2019

Springfield lost 2.9% population.
Dayton lost 1.0%
Columbus gained 14.2%
Cincy gained 2.4%
Toledo lost 5.0%
Cleveland lost 4.0%
Zanesville lost 1.3%

BUT... the good news is that all of these numbers were better for 2010-2019 than for 2000-2010. IE for the cities that lost population in 2000-2010 their rate of decrease improved for 2010-2019. In other words, the outward migration is slowing for every city.

for ex, Cincy lost 10.4% from 2000-2010!

But gained 2.4% from 2010-2019. So.... it appears they have may have bottomed and are on the up and up now.

Springfield lost 7.3% from 2000-2010, but only lost 2.4% from 2010-2019. I suspect by now they have bottomed and won't be losing much more population.


This seems to be the general trend in most midwest cities (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Detroit, Chicago). Though there are a few exceptions where midwest cities have thrived (Columbus, Madison, WI, Minneapolis/St. Paul).

You say the midwest does not get migrants, but that's not entirely true - Columbus for ex gets a lot of immigrants from Somalia.

As far as new housing in Dayton, I don't think housing itself is much a net job creator. I think you need job creators to drive population. For Dayton, they lost some big companies like NCR. But they have the Air Force base/school that will not leave, and might grow with the creation of the Space Force. That is a core that provides solid jobs and creates a floor of jobs/population. But to grow Dayton needs more of these types of organizations with national presence.

I do think there will be some migration from bigger areas like NYC as work-from-home becomes viable for some (yes not all).

[dustin183]

Originally Posted by Natural510

Wow that’s surprising. Not surprising that people are leaving dense cities during a pandemic, but it seems everyone is moving to the hot states in the South & Southwest because no one wants to wear a jacket in winter anymore.

I think this trend has flattened and may reverse a bit. You heard it here