Housing prices insane (Portland, Lake Oswego, Florence: cheap home, buyers, luxury)

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by mathlete

Minus eighteen years rent.

That's the other form of equity achieved which is basically paying off the home vs. someone else's mortgage. You gotta live somewhere while paying for it, right? We recently refi'd and chose 20 years due to favorable rate and lower overall interest over the life of the loan. So, if we stay 18, it's basically payed off.

It would be interesting to run the numbers assuming a modest change in home value ~ 5%/year over 5, 10 and 20 years. Then compare that to another more profitable investment vehicle like the stock market. Let's say ~12% annual growth while subtracting out the cost of rent. I bet one could make a case for either depending on length of time in the home. The buying/selling costs can be killers if not staying very long.

Derek

[fayewolf]

Originally Posted by SlideRules99

As was pointed out, as long as Californians continue to move to Oregon, combined with a lack of housing inventory in Portland metro, Portland housing costs will be driven upwards. This is simple supply and demand.

From October through December, 267,000 people left California compared to just 128,000 who moved in, according to a study by the California Policy Lab. (No idea how it looked before or after that stretch...)

If even a tiny fraction of those folks seek Portland area housing, in a tight supply market, you will see the effects.

I feel bad for you guys. Maybe housing inventory will free up over the next few months and ease the constraints a bit.

We sold last month and moved out of state. I thought the home was worth $600k, realtor convinced us to list at $700k+, it got bid up to damn near $800k within 2 days. I wouldn’t want to be a buyer in this market.

I wish you good luck on the quest.

Thank you! I have the same feeling. Luckily, our offer to the house we submitted was accepted, was it our dream home with location/turn key and cheap? Absolutely no, but it's in a location we like (forest height), and we have a lifetime to remodel

Now i just have to stop looking at additional Redfin/realtor ads/emails and focus on how to beautify my new home Thank you ALL

[JonathanLB]

The markets are just insane virtually everywhere! I just pure dumb luck bought my house in Henderson, NV, moving out of Beaverton in 2019. Now, it seems like a steal. At 3,600 square feet, new construction, modern, unobstructed view of the Strip and mountains, we paid $732K. Another $175K maybe on upgrades mainly outdoor pool, BBQ, hot tub, fridge, fire pit, etc. plus solar panels and various interior upgrades. Now, I see houses that are way smaller, dated, no view, etc being listed for $800K or $900K. I saw one for a million yesterday that was about the size of my house but zero outdoor features, no view, and old. I’m amazed by how these markets have skyrocketed nationwide. I heard in our neighborhood now we’ve had the first house sell for over a million, which I thought would take until at least 2025 if not 2027 or so.

When we looked in Portland back in 2016, we wanted to spend $600K at most. We couldn’t find anything we considered even marginally acceptable so we headed to Beaverton and spent $550K. It wasn’t perfect but it was large enough, great layout, and new. In Portland proper it does seem like $800K to a million is necessary for getting something very good. Otherwise it’s gonna be small and mediocre area.

[blazenjames]

People are freaking and panic buying. Sellers are laughing to the bank. So funny.

[redguard57]

So much for a dying city. If the place was so terrible the market would be collapsing with everyone leaving and no buyers.

You can buy decent houses in eastern Ohio for 50k.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by JonathanLB

The markets are just insane virtually everywhere! I just pure dumb luck bought my house in Henderson, NV, moving out of Beaverton in 2019. Now, it seems like a steal. At 3,600 square feet, new construction, modern, unobstructed view of the Strip and mountains, we paid $732K. Another $175K maybe on upgrades mainly outdoor pool, BBQ, hot tub, fridge, fire pit, etc. plus solar panels and various interior upgrades. Now, I see houses that are way smaller, dated, no view, etc being listed for $800K or $900K. I saw one for a million yesterday that was about the size of my house but zero outdoor features, no view, and old. I’m amazed by how these markets have skyrocketed nationwide. I heard in our neighborhood now we’ve had the first house sell for over a million, which I thought would take until at least 2025 if not 2027 or so.

When we looked in Portland back in 2016, we wanted to spend $600K at most. We couldn’t find anything we considered even marginally acceptable so we headed to Beaverton and spent $550K. It wasn’t perfect but it was large enough, great layout, and new. In Portland proper it does seem like $800K to a million is necessary for getting something very good. Otherwise it’s gonna be small and mediocre area.

Yep, just visited Vegas in March and couldn't believe how much it has built out. I read it was one of the fastest growing markets in the nation.

I later took a trip to Florida where prices are rising in areas which used to be bargains for coastal living. Rising home values are likewise hitting North Carolina, Tennessee, Idaho, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, Washington, California, etc... Any place that was 'somewhat' popular before, has now experienced a similar rise which is compounded by increased remote work options due to Covid. Consequently, many old time locals are complaining about outsiders bringing new money to their RE market unless selling, of course. So, its the same tune being played across the nation. That is unless moving somewhere not appealing to the masses.

U.S. Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

Derek

[ccjarider]

Originally Posted by redguard57

So much for a dying city. If the place was so terrible the market would be collapsing with everyone leaving and no buyers.

You can buy decent houses in eastern Ohio for 50k.

With proximity to CA, it will not die. Demographic may change but exodus?? Not likely.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by ccjarider

With proximity to CA, it will not die. Demographic may change but exodus?? Not likely.

It means there are jobs here. There are no jobs in eastern Ohio.

At least for well off people, which The Oregonian covered today. Portland gained high end jobs during the pandemic but about 10% of working class jobs ceased to exist permanently.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/...-expanded.html

This is both a good thing and simultaneously a very bad thing. It's why downtown has become what it is.

If this phenomenon continues and we become more like CA to include its economy, then I expect immigration to become a bigger issue in Oregon soon.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by ccjarider

With proximity to CA, it will not die. Demographic may change but exodus?? Not likely.

It means there are jobs here. There are no jobs in eastern Ohio.

At least for well off people, which The Oregonian covered today. Portland gained high end jobs during the pandemic but about 10% of working class jobs ceased to exist permanently.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/...-expanded.html

This is both a good thing and simultaneously a very bad thing.

[ccjarider]

Originally Posted by redguard57

It means there are jobs here. There are no jobs in eastern Ohio.

At least for well off people, which The Oregonian covered today. Portland gained high end jobs during the pandemic but about 10% of working class jobs ceased to exist permanently. m

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/...-expanded.html

This is both a good thing and simultaneously a very bad thing.

Why is wage and economic growth a bad thing? Seems better than the alternative?

Also the Article you reference could be written for any metro or geographic area of country. Nothing peculiar to these trends for Portland
.