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We are definitely seeing this effect in Central Oregon also. Bend has become a "Zoom town" with skyrocketing housing prices and not enough supply.
What I find interesting is the wages in Oregon and WA are not really going up any to keep up with the housing prices. I just saw an ad in Bend for a highly skilled technical worker where they were offering $17 an hour. The ad basically weasel worded it as "entry level" but if you read the requirements, they were looking for a somewhat experienced professional Engineer.
What I think is happening is the remote workers coming in from the Bay Area (and similar) are still being paid Bay Area wages while they are working remotely, and those wages are 2 to 3 times what wages are in OR and WA. This is sort of a deal killer for anyone with a local career being able to afford a house.
I was put into forced retirement (age discrimination) in the Seattle area a few years ago, and found the only way to move to Bend was to retire, after thinking I might be able to get a professional technical job here. We sold our Kirkland house for a meager sum (compared to its value now) and had to search and compromise to find a cheaper house in Bend. Since then, our house in Bend has almost doubled in value.
It is crazy! I remember when we moved here and I started following this forum that people in Seattle in Portland were counting on a bubble bursting then, before buying a house. How has that worked out? It is all definitely a gamble and no one has a crystal ball for RE.
Same story that goes on where I live (Reno, NV area). Prices shoot up like a rocket due to transplants moving in, and many of them are working at home. Meanwhile, wages will not go up and locals won't be able to buy a home, let alone rent an apartment.
Reality is going to kick in for those who work at home, moved to a lower cost city and have to go back to the office once covid is over.
Same story that goes on where I live (Reno, NV area). Prices shoot up like a rocket due to transplants moving in, and many of them are working at home. Meanwhile, wages will not go up and locals won't be able to buy a home, let alone rent an apartment.
Reality is going to kick in for those who work at home, moved to a lower cost city and have to go back to the office once covid is over.
It's never going to return to the way it was before Covid in terms of those same folks all working in the office. Even before Covid, remote work was becoming more accepted as a growing national trend. I worked remotely before Covid. As apart of the hiring team, I've watched our remote IT staff grow over the past decade. I watched very conservative management in a highly regulated industry open up to it gradually.
Now, this forced remote work 'experiment' has required companies to invest $milliions in infrastructure to support their entire workforce. After 1.5 years with thousands of staff working from home, they are planning permanent remote options. I know other companies including one of the largest employers in Oregon, OHSU, that has permanently closed their offices and told all IT employees they will be working remotely going forward. A friend of mine is a project manager there that helped staff with that transition. And most are happy about it while the company saves $millions and reduces their carbon footprint.
Will some go back, sure? But I seriously doubt there will be a big move or exodus out of 'zoom towns' post Covid. If anything, I predict the same trend will not only continue but accelerate as companies have discovered the work still gets done while they save mega bucks on office space. Its all about the bottom dollar. Add to that most corporations moving their infrastructures to the cloud along with no longer needing local on-prem IT staff to 'rack and stack' servers, and the trend only continues toward more remote work.
I look forward to seeing the statistics pre-covid vs. post in terms of the dynamic changes to the traditional workforce. Decentralization is an inevitable aspect of the workforce of the future. While there will always be in-person meetings and some working in an office, people are generally spreading out more no longer confined to the overcrowded metro hubs.
For locals with no job prospects traditionally, this also gives them more remote employment options if they have the skills for these jobs. We hired a young grad out of Portland State U. as his first job out of college. He works entirely remote for a Fortune 500 Corp. that he couldn't have without remote options. He is also free to move wherever he wants as long as he has an internet connection. The same types of jobs are available to 20 somethings who want to continue livin' the dream in Bend or other parts of the country where there are no decent local jobs that pay well. But its not limited to 20 somethings. We hire all ages... with current, relevant skills, of course. The last remote guy we hired is in his 60s.
Derek
Last edited by MtnSurfer; 06-10-2021 at 10:24 PM..
The markets are just insane virtually everywhere! I just pure dumb luck bought my house in Henderson, NV, moving out of Beaverton in 2019. Now, it seems like a steal. At 3,600 square feet, new construction, modern, unobstructed view of the Strip and mountains, we paid $732K. Another $175K maybe on upgrades mainly outdoor pool, BBQ, hot tub, fridge, fire pit, etc. plus solar panels and various interior upgrades. Now, I see houses that are way smaller, dated, no view, etc being listed for $800K or $900K. I saw one for a million yesterday that was about the size of my house but zero outdoor features, no view, and old. I’m amazed by how these markets have skyrocketed nationwide. I heard in our neighborhood now we’ve had the first house sell for over a million, which I thought would take until at least 2025 if not 2027 or so.
When we looked in Portland back in 2016, we wanted to spend $600K at most. We couldn’t find anything we considered even marginally acceptable so we headed to Beaverton and spent $550K. It wasn’t perfect but it was large enough, great layout, and new. In Portland proper it does seem like $800K to a million is necessary for getting something very good. Otherwise it’s gonna be small and mediocre area.
I wonder what will happen to the RE values when the water issues worsen? At least Beaverton has water. I prefer my small mediocre house where I have basic services (like water). So, I agree moving was dumb. Be careful what you wish for as you might get it.
It's never going to return to the way it was before Covid in terms of those same folks all working in the office. Even before Covid, remote work was becoming more accepted as a growing national trend. I worked remotely before Covid. As apart of the hiring team, I've watched our remote IT staff grow over the past decade. I watched very conservative management in a highly regulated industry open up to it gradually.
Now, this forced remote work 'experiment' has required companies to invest $milliions in infrastructure to support their entire workforce. After 1.5 years with thousands of staff working from home, they are planning permanent remote options. I know other companies including one of the largest employers in Oregon, OHSU, that has permanently closed their offices and told all IT employees they will be working remotely going forward. A friend of mine is a project manager there that helped staff with that transition. And most are happy about it while the company saves $millions and reduces their carbon footprint.
Will some go back, sure? But I seriously doubt there will be a big move or exodus out of 'zoom towns' post Covid. If anything, I predict the same trend will not only continue but accelerate as companies have discovered the work still gets done while they save mega bucks on office space. Its all about the bottom dollar. Add to that most corporations moving their infrastructures to the cloud along with no longer needing local on-prem IT staff to 'rack and stack' servers, and the trend only continues toward more remote work.
I look forward to seeing the statistics pre-covid vs. post in terms of the dynamic changes to the traditional workforce. Decentralization is an inevitable aspect of the workforce of the future. While there will always be in-person meetings and some working in an office, people are generally spreading out more no longer confined to the overcrowded metro hubs.
For locals with no job prospects traditionally, this also gives them more remote employment options if they have the skills for these jobs. We hired a young grad out of Portland State U. as his first job out of college. He works entirely remote for a Fortune 500 Corp. that he couldn't have without remote options. He is also free to move wherever he wants as long as he has an internet connection. The same types of jobs are available to 20 somethings who want to continue livin' the dream in Bend or other parts of the country where there are no decent local jobs that pay well. But its not limited to 20 somethings. We hire all ages... with current, relevant skills, of course. The last remote guy we hired is in his 60s.
Derek
Adding to your point, companies that try to reel employees back in the office will face a significant amount of attrition. Companies won’t be able to easily put the genie back in the bottle. That ship has sailed and was long overdue. Some employees need to be micromanaged. Others strongly prefer the social interaction. But WFH will expand, not contract.
Adding to your point, companies that try to reel employees back in the office will face a significant amount of attrition. Companies won’t be able to easily put the genie back in the bottle. That ship has sailed and was long overdue. Some employees need to be micromanaged. Others strongly prefer the social interaction. But WFH will expand, not contract.
Agreed completely. Every company is having this same discussion, and most at the very least are going flex/hybrid while some positions are being considered for full remote capabilities, of course depending on the niche and industry. Some are going full remote. It was a fascinating social experiment that will change working forever, and one that employers are devastated by given now they won't be able to control and micromanage employees like when they were in the office. Also, there is a labor shortage and the labor force for the first time in a while have leverage over their employers.
Everybody who is hoping that this trend will blow up and acting as if there is a mass exodus that's going to happen is missing the dynamics around this migration phenomenon and also applies to locals who were comfortable with Oregon being the Oregon of old. It's not turning back anytime soon, and same goes for Texas, Idaho, Nevada, etc.
This is probably irrelevant to you as I'm guessing you want to stay on the west coast but I moved to OKC 10 years ago from Seattle before prices got so high in OKC and we live in uptown/paseo arts district.
I was super leary about moving to OKC due to various reasons like politics, religion, having stuff to do but it turned out to be way different than I expected and I love it here. OKC is a little liberal area in this state.
I looked at portland as well but it is so similar to seattle as far as culture and weather goes I decided not to move even though it's a great city plus the money I am saving in OKC is crazy to say the least.
Agreed completely. Every company is having this same discussion, and most at the very least are going flex/hybrid while some positions are being considered for full remote capabilities, of course depending on the niche and industry. Some are going full remote. It was a fascinating social experiment that will change working forever, and one that employers are devastated by given now they won't be able to control and micromanage employees like when they were in the office. Also, there is a labor shortage and the labor force for the first time in a while have leverage over their employers.
Everybody who is hoping that this trend will blow up and acting as if there is a mass exodus that's going to happen is missing the dynamics around this migration phenomenon and also applies to locals who were comfortable with Oregon being the Oregon of old. It's not turning back anytime soon, and same goes for Texas, Idaho, Nevada, etc.
Yes, its a really amazing social experiment that came out of an otherwise terrible situation. However, like they say, necessity is the mother of invention. In this case, the man behind the curtain has been exposed for what he is. Those micromanagers along with their schemes and systems to 'watch' employees like a hawk from arrival to departure including bathroom breaks, etc... has all been turned on its head. When its all been said and done, its about getting the work done, period. When that happens, their roles become diminished. And then, guess what? Corporations realize they may not need so many 'nanny' managers and can operate more lean. Contribute and add real value and get out of the way.
Derek
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