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No way is this a $ issue. CA govt policy makes prices explode. Ever been to CA? Millions of buildable acres that cannot be touched due to overbearing govt. policy. OR is similar in thinking
Demand could easily be addressed by free market. Democrat leadership dislikes that reality because they are not controlling outcome if market is allowed to work.
Melodramatic to say it will-all burn down.
Did you notice how close the fires last year got to the edge of the Eugene area? To the populated areas of Clackamas County?
Did you notice how close the fires last year got to the edge of the Eugene area? To the populated areas of Clackamas County?
I'm not sure how many on the forum actually drove through the fire ravaged areas in Oregon last year. But it was truly devastating and heartbreaking. I had never personally seen anything like that close up before. It literally looked like a bombed war zone with many homes burnt to the ground, still smoking, the only thing left a chimney or burnt out vehicle in the front blackened yard. Families in shock digging through their destroyed homes. I've also had close family members come within minutes of being burnt alive only to escape with the clothes on their back as fire engulfed their home and neighborhood. It's not something you just shrug off or can ignore. The risk is real and increasing year over year. Fires are not going away.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Metros could change their density in building up and smaller sf / occupant. With compact commercial centers (becoming the norm / necessity with WFH and e-commerce / shipping.)
The entire nation of Singapore (7m including residents + huge number of expats / foreign workers / tourists) is ~1/4th the area of Portland metro. Like Portland.... Singapore has very large and wonderful parks that are usually empty of people. And... Housing prices are insane in Singapore... Great public schools, easy commute to work and to foreign countries, safe, handy place to exile from Hong Kong, indonesia, Myanmar.....
We have a lot of options for creating a more affordable good quality of life. (Including housing). How much sf of the average home / lot or office is really needed? How much of your space could be better enjoyed and utilized by others? When is the last time you used the spare bedrooms, living or dining room, or corners of your private yard?
Metros could change their density in building up and smaller sf / occupant. With compact commercial centers (becoming the norm / necessity with WFH and e-commerce / shipping.)
The entire nation of Singapore (7m including residents + huge number of expats / foreign workers / tourists) is ~1/4th the area of Portland metro. Like Portland.... Singapore has very large and wonderful parks that are usually empty of people. And... Housing prices are insane in Singapore... Great public schools, easy commute to work and to foreign countries, safe, handy place to exile from Hong Kong, indonesia, Myanmar.....
We have a lot of options for creating a more affordable good quality of life. (Including housing). How much sf of the average home / lot or office is really needed? How much of your space could be better enjoyed and utilized by others? When is the last time you used the spare bedrooms, living or dining room, or corners of your private yard?
I think the challenge for America vs. Asia is a cultural one which runs very deep. Home ownership with the white picket fence and extra land/big backyard is apart of that. Whether good or bad, that represents part of the American dream. It's the same reason folks fought so hard against someone else telling them they needed to wear masks and now vaccination. And some still refuse. Whereas in Asia its an entirely different story. The people willingly do things which the gov't asks for the betterment of society whether they like it or not. They aren't screaming about their rights or doing things 'my way' because 'I'm, merican and no ones gonna tell me what to do!' So, we selfishly wind up with more deaths than any country in the world - brilliant. If you question that you're probably a commie liberal anyway. lol
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnSurfer
I think the challenge for America vs. Asia is a cultural one which runs very deep. Home ownership with the white picket fence and extra land/big backyard is apart of that. Whether good or bad, that represents part of the American dream. ... If you question that you're probably a commie liberal anyway. lol
Derek
A bit of a dichotomy, because... in the USA regions which have enacted rules / planning which have led to Housing prices insane regions, which then perptuates itself due to migration... are the regions full of "commie liberal(s)" who could have authored and accepted, and modeled the very viable solutions to keeping housing affordable while maintaining a desireable QoL and sustainable environment.
(I'm thinking...)
Boulder (enacted land use laws and growth management in the 1960's)
Oregon - 1980-1990's
SF / Bay area (80's+)
NYC
DC metro is different... it's OUT in the 'swamp'... (an Outlier)
A bit of a dichotomy, because... in the USA regions which have enacted rules / planning which have led to Housing prices insane regions, which then perptuates itself due to migration... are the regions full of "commie liberal(s)" who could have authored and accepted, and modeled the very viable solutions to keeping housing affordable while maintaining a desireable QoL and sustainable environment.
(I'm thinking...)
Boulder (enacted land use laws and growth management in the 1960's)
Oregon - 1980-1990's
SF / Bay area (80's+)
NYC
DC metro is different... it's OUT in the 'swamp'... (an Outlier)
Can you give an example of these rules/plans that have led to insane housing prices in Oregon?
I don't see it in CA with all the explosive growth and development. CA has the largest population in the nation and is still growing/building.
I think folks are confusing/conflating environmental protection of certain lands with 'anti-growth.' The two are not mutually exclusive. You can and do have both in CA as well as OR. Whether environmental protection is inherently bad or bad for the middle class is another question. But, IMO, its a mental leap to suggest lack of building on such lands is the cause for 'insane prices.' That makes a lot of assumptions which don't hold up very well in others areas that have tried it, especially those which are highly desirable here on the west coast.
As I mentioned, there was no lack of explosive building in CA, especially SoCal over the past 50+ years. No liberals or anyone else were trying to stop it. And so now you have what we have there. Millions upon millions of people living there with more insane homes prices than Portland or Seattle combined which most middle class can never afford. It didn't work there, simply building out all the farm lands and other open/protected areas. Prices did not drop. Conditions did not improve. Traffic got worse. The area is more polluted with an overall lower QOL for all. More natives had to leave because of it. This is a case where correlation (increasing inventory) does not equal causation (lowering housing costs for the middle class). There are too many other economic factors at play to ever make it that simple.
Derek
Last edited by MtnSurfer; 04-29-2021 at 12:44 PM..
Did you notice how close the fires last year got to the edge of the Eugene area? To the populated areas of Clackamas County?
Sounds like you are saying these fires occurred in known "fire zones" and therefore should be considered as such for future development restriction? That seems illogical.
That would be the same as not building in an area that experienced a tornado or not rebuilding Chicago or San Francisco because they experienced fires 100 yrs ago. (Hey - it could happen again so .... better safe than sorry) .
Can you give an example of these rules/plans that have led to insane housing prices in Oregon?
I don't see it in CA with all the explosive growth and development. CA has the largest population in the nation and is still growing/building.
I think folks are confusing/conflating environmental protection of certain lands with 'anti-growth.' The two are not mutually exclusive. You can and do have both in CA as well as OR. Whether environmental protection is inherently bad or bad for the middle class is another question. But, IMO, its a mental leap to suggest lack of building on such lands is the cause for 'insane prices.' That makes a lot of assumptions which don't hold up very well in others areas that have tried it, especially those which are highly desirable here on the west coast.
As I mentioned, there was no lack of explosive building in CA, especially SoCal over the past 50+ years. No liberals or anyone else were trying to stop it. And so now you have what we have there. Millions upon millions of people living there with more insane homes prices than Portland or Seattle combined which most middle class can never afford. It didn't work there, simply building out all the farm lands and other open/protected areas. Prices did not drop. Conditions did not improve. Traffic got worse. The area is more polluted with an overall lower QOL for all. More natives had to leave because of it. This is a case where correlation (increasing inventory) does not equal causation (lowering housing costs for the middle class). There are too many other economic factors at play to ever make it that simple.
Derek
Thinking about comparisons to my native Texas, there's just a lot less regulation and bureaucratic hoops to go through in order to build developments. A lot of private concerns handle things like utilities for said developments, and relatively light footprint of environmental regulatory barriers. In Oregon there are more strict land use laws, urban growth boundaries, a lot more hoops to go through to build, say an overpass in order to make access to a development. It helps that much of Texas is pretty flat, formerly just flat cattle grazing territory as far as the eye can see. The federal government doesn't own much of its land, its rivers are small, e.g; typically pretty easy to make a longer route to cross a river so you don't have to build an expensive bridge. Overall it's not all that aesthetically or topographically interesting and its cities can just spread out and out and out and out.
A lot this transcends immediate party politics. It used to be liberals of their day that encouraged development as something "progressive," and conservatives that wanted preserve family farms. E.g.: In Oregon the land use laws were championed by Republicans who were culturally conservative, wanted to preserve rural character, and did NOT want to encourage family farms to give up on their businesses and break their land up into quarter-acre development tracts. That happened across Texas like a whirlwind between the late 1970s and 2000s, which covered its transition from a Democratic to a Republican state.
Also, Texas is sneakily "liberal" in that there all kinds of subsidies for developers. This is ironically championed by conservatives, both Democratic and Republican versions.
It's how you get polyglot urban sprawl blobs with little rhyme or reason to their growth patterns. The best example of which would be Houston. If you are willing to drive far enough there is an affordable development to buy into. Eventually these become their own little centers of gravity and over time become more expensive.
Last edited by redguard57; 04-29-2021 at 02:19 PM..
Sounds like you are saying these fires occurred in known "fire zones" and therefore should be considered as such for future development restriction? That seems illogical.
That would be the same as not building in an area that experienced a tornado or not rebuilding Chicago or San Francisco because they experienced fires 100 yrs ago. (Hey - it could happen again so .... better safe than sorry) .
In Oregon the entire state is a fire zone. Basically the entire state is Paradise, CA writ large. The Rogue Valley is at extreme risk, so is Central Oregon. Last I checked, Medford, Grants Pass, Ashland and Bend are at highest risk and could completely burn down. Those are like Paradise 500%.
It's not impossible wildfire could get into the Portland urban area and the entire city would have to be evacuated. That nightmare scenario was possible in 2020. Canby, Oregon City, and Sandy were put under level 2 evacuation orders in September.
Talent was near the top of the list in 2019: https://www.statesmanjournal.com/sto...es/3760881002/ Look what happened. Makes me wonder how the hell Bend's housing prices are so high. It has surpassed some of Portland's neighborhoods now.
Last edited by redguard57; 04-29-2021 at 01:46 PM..
Thinking about comparisons to my native Texas, there's just a lot less regulation and bureaucratic hoops to go through in order to build developments. A lot of private concerns handle things like utilities for said developments, and relatively light footprint of environmental regulatory barriers. In Oregon there are more strict land use laws, urban growth boundaries, a lot more hoops to go through to build, say an overpass in order to make access to a development. It helps that much of Texas is pretty flat, formerly just flat cattle grazing territory as far as the eye can see. The federal government doesn't own much of its land, its rivers are small, e.g; typically pretty easy to make a longer route to cross a river so you don't have to build an expensive bridge. Overall it's not all that aesthetically interesting and its cities can just spread out and out and out and out.
A lot this transcends immediate party politics. It used to be liberals of their day that encouraged development as something "progressive, and conservatives that wanted preserve family farms. E.g.: In Oregon the land use laws were championed by Republicans who were culturally conservative, wanted to preserve rural character, and did NOT want to encourage family farms to give up on their businesses and break their land up into quarter-acre development tracts. That happened across Texas like a whirlwind between the late 1970s and 2000s, which covered its transition from a Democratic to a Republican state.
Also, Texas is sneakily "liberal" in that there all kinds of subsidies for developers. This is ironically championed by conservatives, both Democratic and Republican versions.
It's how you get polyglot urban sprawl blobs with little rhyme or reason to its growth pattern. The best example of which would be Houston. If you are willing to drive far enough there is an affordable development to buy into. Eventually these become their own little centers of gravity and over time become more expensive.
Interesting analogy with Texas which has always been the 'dream state' to move to if you wanted to buy an affordable McMansion with minimal regulations, etc... Unlike the west coast with its geographic diversity including the the Sierras and Cascade ranges, there aren't those same mountainous limitation. So yeah, tons of open land as far as the eye could see.
Although I haven't been watching the market in Texas, I have heard prices are rising there are well in the main economic hubs. That includes popular places for west coasters like Austin.
So, even for Texas, prices might appear to be 'insane' in some the more popular cities now. This is true for other states as well like Idaho, Colorado, Florida, etc... where folks are used to shop for great bargains near the big cities.
Derek
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... (an Outlier)
