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Humanity is a fabric, not a selected number of course threads. Without supports, risk aversion will become too high for anything to be done. Without purpose, our conscience falls to the level of immediate gratification.
Even our little town built up over the decades cannot be prepped for all situations. Mammals are complex beings. We need diversity as a species. We need community. As Ukraine looks increasingly unlikely to be able to export her grain, the question becomes, who will lose? Turkey was the largest buyer of their wheat, at 4,500,000 metric tons of the stuff....that's a lot of food to replace....but we can live on more than just wheat, so substitution can and will occur.
Still, the point becomes, who will lose. One may guess the poor, but the reality will be the connected. Those with access to multiple markets may pay a higher premium for food, but they will have access to it. It is only markets without access to food where starvation can happen. (i.e. North Korea)
The post apocolyptic communities that have both access to food, and a firm and reasonably decent function of warehousing food and keeping it secure will do the best. Those communities that choose to work together to keep enough order to allow that access to continue will give rise to the new civilizations, even if kept separate at the city state/village dot level.
Thus the question becomes, after the initial prepping event...how quickly an area can organize itself, and how brutal an area will need to become. Democracy is unlikely to survive. An accepted leader or chieftain will need to arise for a small area. With productivity lost on a massive scale how a population of an area adjusts is bound to be filled with horror stories.
If we read the Bible and consider where civilization was at, it's interesting that the 10 commandments were so rather basic. Though shalt not kill, Though shalt not commit adultery, Though shalt not steal, There is 1 God etc. These are conforming rules aimed at decreasing the level of anarchy. Hammurabi's laws appealed to the same conforming ideals. These are good ways to live as defined by the area.
Consider the city state...or more likely, small hamlet. With enough diversity, farmers can expect protection against outside invaders. They can also expect help in getting seed so long as the food in return then flows back to the community. Yet not every harvest will be bountiful. If a crop fails, having seed for the following year may well depend on someone keeping enough seed free of consumption to allow it. Whether we consider this a modern granery....or the storage is kept in an area that is considered....sacred....the early forms of currency were via product grown. Should too few people maintain their land, the entire town may be wiped out....hence the jubilee to wipe clean the slate and allow people to return to work their ancestral grounds. These items tie together in a most basic way. A community must agree upon a set of rules. These rules must be enforceable beyond the power of a mere mortal. The system must work to the betterment of the community. The community must be ready to defend this defined area and approach.
Early economics, banking, religion and community...all wrapped up in one solution.
Those connected, will survive. Those isolated, will not. Doesn't mean a bug out shelter for a terrible event is a bad idea, but it's harder than just that. When and how will one reintegrate? How will acceptance be preferred over simply killing one and taking their stuff?
Survive 6-12 months of what, exactly? Short of something like global thermonuclear war, a collapse isn't an event, it's a process.
I think it was generic, that if you and your neighbors lost utilities and there was no way to get supplies, would you survive 6 months.
Already, a couple of break points have been noted:
(for the typical person, not someone living off grid)
You (generic persons) would need an alternative source of water within a few days, and an alternative source of pharmaceuticals (especially insulin and anti-psychotics) within a few weeks. Food would vary from place to place. If you live between a chicken ranch and a grain farm, you would have food longer than if you were living in a high rise in Philadelphia.
The first one might be easier to overcome than the second.
how many of the general public could survive for longer than a week or two once the electricity went down, no fuel so no deliveries and the mains water shut down as well?
there wont be many that could survive for 6 days never mind 6 weeks let alone 6 months.
a week without utility power or delivery trucks isn't a disaster, it's just February
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigpaul
how many of the general public could survive for longer than a week or two once the electricity went down, no fuel so no deliveries and the mains water shut down as well?
there wont be many that could survive for 6 days never mind 6 weeks let alone 6 months.
Up here in northern New England, a week without utility power or delivery trucks isn't a disaster, it's just February... or sometimes November.
I could probably muddle through the tail end of one winter with no fuel deliveries or other incoming supplies, but the next year and the following winter would be tough, I don't harvest nearly enough wood to heat exclusively with cordwood for an entire winter, and freshly cut wood needs to season longer than one summer to be burn-ready.
I have the acres of trees to be able to sustainably harvest enough wood, but it's hard labor and would take time away from trying to grow and preserve food -- no sense in being warm and starving.
When most of the population are all electric-especially new built houses- a minor power cuts sends them into apoplectic shock and remarks about "the middle ages", anything more than a few hours without power will send them into a blind panic.
make it a permanent state of affairs and they will be dropping like flies.
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a week without utility power or delivery trucks isn't a disaster, it's just February
