[Cambium]

Use this link to animate the map. Pretty cool to see the cold air force its way down as the frames change. Then it warms up and the cold air trys to hang on.

NCEP GFS 2-Meter Temperatures Forecast 0 to 192 hours (http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/temperature/gfs/us_t2m.html - broken link)

Here's Hr 171(Sept17) Looks like 20s for Vermont and Northern NH. Even parts of NY and northern PA (elevation factor). 40s for the coast.

I always add a few degrees since the GFS tends to overdo it.



Cold air should start dropping down on the 15th.

[square peg]

Last night we dipped into the 30s in the NEK. Had the wood stove going this a.m.

First snow? Typically October, at least in the northeast sections, but it doesn't start sticking until around mid November or so. But in 1986 there were a few inches on the ground on Sept. 16th - everywhere. Just my luck I had chosen that date to hike Mt. Washington. Didn't make it anywhere near the top. Fall weather can be a little finicky.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by square peg

Last night we dipped into the 30s in the NEK. Had the wood stove going this a.m.

First snow? Typically October, at least in the northeast sections, but it doesn't start sticking until around mid November or so. But in 1986 there were a few inches on the ground on Sept. 16th - everywhere. Just my luck I had chosen that date to hike Mt. Washington. Didn't make it anywhere near the top. Fall weather can be a little finicky.

I think record lows will be tested end of this week. Keep us posted...whats the record low for your town on the 16th of September? Mine is 43 in coastal CT.

Just cleaned my wood stove flue yesterday.

[Cambium]

You guys ready for a temporary blast of Winter? This is Saturday morning lows. Friday morning pretty much the same.

[square peg]

It's inevitable, but usually it warms right up again after the first cold spell. And re. how cold it has been on Sept. 16th? I'd guess somewhere in the mid to upper twenties.

[Cambium]

You guys ready for another blast of cold air?

Models pretty consistant with thinking around Oct 1st and a second deeper one around October 5th.

540 line is the 32 degree line(low 40s at surface). You can see very tip of NorthWest Vermont in the 528 line(mid 20s at surface).

I'm thinking a little snow for the tall mountains. :-)



This is 2 seperate runs of one model. One from last night and one fom this morning... You can see the one from last night (left image) has a strong High pressure and a deeper cold air senario.
This mornings run backed off a little.

[square peg]

Well, uh thanks... How would we have known what the 540 and 528 lines are if you hadn't explained it? Or is it just me?

[Cambium]

BTW - They eliminated the 1970s weather, added 2000-2010 years and now new averages are in place. "Normal" temps have changed all around.(mostly to warmer)

Even the Garden Zone map changed. Here's a map that shows the changes. Lines represent how far north or south the zones went.

Southern Vermont went from Zone 4 to Zone 5 now.

[Cambium]

This long range forecast is based on the 00z run of the GFS. The latest run doesnt have it "as" cold... but take a look at the high and low temps around October 2nd..

[Cambium]

And this is from that same model run. I assume the mountains will see snow next week... Still early to say snow for surface levels though..

but this is interesting to see. Snow fall inches through October 10th. LOL