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No North Pacific warm blob right now. How will the cooler waters in the PNW effect the upcoming winter if they remain the same and at the same time with the ongoing El Nino
CanSIPS came out with their winter precip yesterday
That's pretty textbook El Nino but I don't think it will be this way. Looking like El Nino will be peaking before or early in the winter with region 1+2 dropping off fast while region 3.4 will have a slower steady decline. Kind of a Modoki look to it. Bastardi a couple months ago said this winter will feature a "migrating Modoki"
NEW EUROPEAN SEASONAL OUT...
COLD & SNOWY WINTER SIGNAL APPEARS ..
The new October seasonal model run has come out hinting at a cold & snow eastern USA for Dec..Jan..Feb
*Below I've attached a comparison between the SEPT run and the current OCT run.
A few things of note; The NEW European...
1. Maintains lower height field across the eastern USA (storm signal)
2. Increases the western Canada Ridge (Cold signal)
3. Continues to show high latitude blocking over eastern Canada via a west based -NAO
These three signals are key to a snowy/cold winter forecast aided by a weak to moderate El Nino.
. I do think Nov ends up going warmer and into part of December but not blow torch as it’s a non La Niña year
NEW EUROPEAN SEASONAL OUT...
COLD & SNOWY WINTER SIGNAL APPEARS ..
The new October seasonal model run has come out hinting at a cold & snow eastern USA for Dec..Jan..Feb
*Below I've attached a comparison between the SEPT run and the current OCT run.
A few things of note; The NEW European...
1. Maintains lower height field across the eastern USA (storm signal)
2. Increases the western Canada Ridge (Cold signal)
3. Continues to show high latitude blocking over eastern Canada via a west based -NAO
These three signals are key to a snowy/cold winter forecast aided by a weak to moderate El Nino.
. I do think Nov ends up going warmer and into part of December but not blow torch as it’s a non La Niña year
So what's the difference between Modoki and west-based?
I thought they were the same thing. Modoki is the Japanese term describing warmer ENSO anomalies in the Central Pacific.
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