Winter 2023-24 (Northern Hemisphere) (average, degree, most, normal)

[Ed's Mountain]

Is there really a difference between "Equal Chances" of above/below temperatures and a 50% chance of near normal temperatures?


Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ns/long_range/

[LKJ1988]

Near normal means hot for my area and super dry. I don't expect any real rain for years.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain

Is there really a difference between "Equal Chances" of above/below temperatures and a 50% chance of near normal temperatures?]

Sounds the same. I think it means 25% chance of above, 25% chance of below and 50% chance of near normal.

[LKJ1988]

I don't expect 1.2" for Jan and not even .90" for Feb and none for March.

[Cambium]

Goodbye East El Nino... No Super Nino and its cooling down now.

January/February 2015-16 was an interesting two months in NYC, with a good cold blasts and some good snow.



https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/...84594356093041

[Cambium]

What a joke. Such a joke they are. I mean do they just not want to use the blue paint?



Reminder... Their Forecast Vs Actual that winter

[SFX]

If it doesn't mean warming, it's not worth presenting.

Also, those graphics representing the US winters are completely bogus.

[GraniteStater]

Facts are that winter remains the fastest warming season in the US. You can look at multiple sets of 30 year sets of averages to easily find the info.

[Cambium]

Here are my backyard snow totals past 13yrs. If you total them up and divide by 13 the average is 38 inches but using the 30yr avg it's more like 34". Used to be 29" with the old 1981-2010 avg

Highlighted the snowiest month in blue. March was the snowiest 4 of the 5 winters 2014-2019.

In 2010-11 I got 62 inches in 4 weeks time. WAS INSANE

[Cambium]

Another factor for winter... are the pieces falling into place?? Bring back the North Pacific blob


https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status...TqceM67Ag&s=19