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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
652 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024
A progressive, yet amplified flow pattern will persist over much of
the long term, from the end of this week through the middle of
next week. The potential continues for a storm system to impact
the area Saturday night into Sunday.
There continues to be remarkable consensus for the development of a
low pressure system that moves across the Mid-Atlantic coastline
Saturday night and into Sunday among different global models and
their respective ensembles.
Energy embedded in a trough enters the CONUS on Wednesday and
continues to move eastward as it slides into the South Central
Plains by Friday morning. Over the eastern half of the US, a large
surface high pressure system builds under a mid-level ridge which
allows a N flow to advect cooler air into the area. The high
pressure may merge with another approaching high pressure system
north of the area which enhances the cold air advection via
northerly winds. A low pressure is then expected to develop
somewhere over the Southeast US and track in the vicinity of the
Mid-Atlantic.
For now, the system remains consistent in its development
among the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC and fairly consistent in the timing of
impacting the region being Saturday night through Sunday. While PoPs
have been bumped up a bit, any confidence in p-types is still too
low to determine at this time as there remains considerable
uncertainty in its intensity, track, and the extent of antecedent
cold air to determine any p-types at this range. Although the system
remains consistent among models at this time, there are a lot of
different variables that can change the outcome of significantly.
Best of luck to New York
I won't be there. I'll be at home in Mississippi where we could really use the rain that apparently will be sweeping though on its way to New York.
The coast could get as much as 5 inches. That's a lot of water, especially in an area where the ground is too dry and compacted to absorb it. It'll roll off like water off a dried sponge.
Exact track still unknown but I think it takes the middle of these 2 senarios on the map but the north or south track still a chance. 4-5 days away now so models should be locking down on it.
That High Pressure position in Canada means a lot too. Too much to the West and the track gets too close to the coast so would be an interior snowstorm
Exact track still unknown but I think it takes the middle of these 2 senarios on the map but the north or south track still a chance. 4-5 days away now so models should be locking down on it.
That High Pressure position in Canada means a lot too. Too much to the West and the track gets too close to the coast so would be an interior snowstorm
12Z GFS has the northern track and is a disaster for NYC snow.
There are two separate parts to this system shown below - Upper low over southern states and an injection of energy from the northern branch which will be the cold air source region. The placement being over VA/MD is a strong signal for interior big snows (north & west of I-95) w/ mixing S&E. This does NOT mean no snow.. just a mixing situation.
Duration and depth of cold over the Major cities are too fuzzy right now. I do hope to put out snowmaps tomorrow as more data comes in.
Here's your CAD (cold air damn) feature Saturday night that will tighten dramatically. In this red area we will see a major demarcation that will enhance the snow ratio on the NW side of the 850mb low
Heading into a snowstorm you really want to see run to run changes in the 850mb changes (going colder).. This tells me the models are cooling off and tightening the thermal gradient.
12Z GFS has the northern track and is a disaster for NYC snow.
Actually... its not bad! This doesn't show the 925mb level (2500'). Sometimes there is warmth at that level which ruins the PType
but Below freezing at 5000' and surface cold enough for snow. 0.99" liquid. Bulk of it falls Saturday night
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