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I am honestly astounded at the number of people that claim this is the "worst" time in American history.
I don't think it is, but I think we have crested the peak and are headed down. We still have an enviable standard of living in a country that is mostly safe and peaceful and relatively prosperous but that's not going to last.
I don't think it is, but I think we have crested the peak and are headed down. We still have an enviable standard of living in a country that is mostly safe and peaceful and relatively prosperous but that's not going to last.
What about this decline leads you to believe that the US will no longer be; safe, peaceful and prosperous? The realistic scenario is a larger scale Britain. A former super power that has given up attempting to dominate the globe militarily and instead turned inward. If the US merely dropped our military spending to the proportional level of other nations, we would nearly eliminate our current budget deficit. It's the same lesson the British ultimately learned, the cost of empire is greater then the reward.
What about this decline leads you to believe that the US will no longer be; safe, peaceful and prosperous? The realistic scenario is a larger scale Britain. A former super power that has given up attempting to dominate the globe militarily and instead turned inward. If the US merely dropped our military spending to the proportional level of other nations, we would nearly eliminate our current budget deficit. It's the same lesson the British ultimately learned, the cost of empire is greater then the reward.
They didn't give up; their hand was forced. Plus, I don't think the same result would be achieved if the UK was facing a loss of its empire in today's culture. Even as it is there is a lot of hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing there about what many perceive to be the UK's continued decline.
I agree that the cost of empire is usually greater than the reward, but I don't see us making a smooth transition to second-rate power in this era of globalization. Sorry.
I remember reading about the decline of the US when I was a kid and how things were just going to get worse and worse. I think we have it pretty good - considering everything - compared to our grandparents. Life is easier than ever.
I also keep hearing about the gloom and doom in the economy however if I did not read about it or see it on TV I would have no idea. Whenever I go to a restaurant there is a wait, I see lines with full shopping carts in the checkouts at stores and products sold out, I go to the theme parks in Orlando and they are packed to capacity some days, just where is all this suffering?
I think Americans just got too used to being the biggest industrial nation in the world.
We got that handed to us by the effects of World War II. Our allies and our foes all had their industry drastically impaired, all the way from damaged to wiped out, and we were the only nation to avoid that. As a result, we essentially had a free competitive ride for a very long time.
I think America's economy is returning to more like things were before World War II, when there was more competitiveness from Europe. We are facing more international competition now than then, but our nation is now larger and much more industrially diverse now than then.
The one advantage we continue to hold is our restless and inventive nature. We have always sought the new and the better. While we are struggling now, I think we will do all right. It is going to take time, but we have lost none of our responsiveness to the world's needs, and we still have plenty of innovative spirit.
But I doubt we will ever have a clear playing field again. We will have to adapt to that fact.
Garson, In case you hadn't noticed, things actually have gotten worse. Out of wedlock births, up, immorality, porn all up. The effects are palpable. Our poverty rate, our labor participation rate, the numbers of people on food stamps all way up from past twenty years. What people feared would happen has, and now we are in debt up to our eyeballs, in part because of these things, since government subsidizes or funds all kinds of programs for people who are nothing but a drag on society and contribute nothing.
This was a good article. Stockman is writing from a certain ideological POV, but his ansyses was pretty good...or it makes sense to me. A lot of what he says can be found on the left, too, though Stockman was identified as a conservative.
I notice he doesn't mince words and has plenty to say about both the GOP and Dems of course he aknowledges his remedies are unworkable given the political situation.
I'd be more interested if he would explore the road to collaspe a bit more....and what the end state would be.
....I, personally, sometimes wonder if we are going to head to a catastrophic Weimar Repubic style currency collapse.
I remember reading about the decline of the US when I was a kid and how things were just going to get worse and worse. I think we have it pretty good - considering everything - compared to our grandparents. Life is easier than ever.
I also keep hearing about the gloom and doom in the economy however if I did not read about it or see it on TV I would have no idea. Whenever I go to a restaurant there is a wait, I see lines with full shopping carts in the checkouts at stores and products sold out, I go to the theme parks in Orlando and they are packed to capacity some days, just where is all this suffering?
I don't think I'll ever understand people with such opinions. I often wonder what magical land or bubble they're living in because it's sure not the reality most Americans face.
Well, let's look at my grandparents.
Mom's side. Her cop father took off because he was sick of the old lady and his four kids, so he skipped out on her, found a much younger woman, and just dropped his family like a hot rock. My grandmother (born 1920) went to work for the first time in her life at the age of 34 earning the equivalent of minimum wage today. With her low paying factory job, she bought a house with no family assistance, raised four kids, and sent all four of them to Catholic $chool. What my grandmother did would not be possible today.
On my father's side, my grandparents were born in 1898 and 1900. They had 13 kids, and my grandmother was a stay at home mom. She never worked a job outside the home her entire life. They continuously bought new homes throughout this time. My grandfather was a notorious drunk, who often blew an entire week's wages in the bar, yet he managed to keep 13 kids in food, clothing, and shelter while buying at least two homes I know of. One of them was brand new, and in the suburbs.
My Uncle born 1930 quit high school, joined the newly established Air Force, and after that he worked at Aberdeen Proving grounds. He bought some rural property in what was to become Willow Street, Pa. He built a few homes on it, and eventually, some contractor bought out the rest of the lots, and my uncle got paid exponentially more for the dirt cheap farm land than he paid for it. He retired at age 55.
My father born 1938, worked a factory job his entire life. In 1965, he bought a brand new car for 2,200, a home for 5,000 dollars in the suburbs, and he grossed 7,500 for the year. His mortgage was for 10 years, and the note on the car was 18 months. He raised two kids, supported a non working housewife, saved for retirement, and lead a good life.
I was born in 1965. After military service, I earned 40,000 per year in the late 1980s working in a factory, and by 1995, I was earning 60,000 per year. The factory closed, and by the time I was old enough to work, most of the factories that paid a living wage left the country. With one hour's work before taxes, I earned enough money to buy 20 packs of cigarettes, today's value $126.00, 20 gallons of gasoline, today's value $72.00, and I could buy about 30 draft beers, today's value $60.00. Ok, so you're not into driving a lot or have any vices. In one weeks time, I earned enough money to support a non working wife, a child, two 1 ton diesel 4x4 trucks, and a home in Hershey for the entire month. Today, that would take a weekly income of at least 2,500 - 3,000. The home I got in 1988, just five years out of high school! cost 75,000 dollars, and I could earn that in just 1.5 years of working. Today that home goes for 225,000 dollars, so where are the factory jobs paying that much money every 18 months? In 4 months time, I earned enough to buy a brand new 4x4 F-350 Diesel. Today, those trucks are going for 40,000, so where are the jobs that pay that much every four months for high school graduates? Moreover, in my father's and grandfather's time, they didn't even have to graduate. Many of them quit school at age 12, got a job to help the family, and when they were 18, they got a real factory job, left their families, and started there own.
I have not seen one thing my entire life that has lead me to believe this country is getting better. I'm sure it's better for a few people that have money, but for 80% of us in this country, and especially the bottom 20%, things have gotten exponentially worse.
While I know imports existed as a child, and every so often I would see one, nearly 100% of this country drove domestic vehicles. Note, I mean made in America. If one of my dad's friends bought a truck, and didn't check it right, all his friends would call him on the fact that it was made in Canada, or that the engine was made in Mexico. Once this was pointed out, the man took the truck back, traded it in on a USA made truck, and he never again made that mistake in his life. When we were shopping downtown, and we heard a strange foreign vehicle coming down the street, everybody would stop and stare, and somebody would quip, "Fools like that will ruin this nation." When I was a kid, one had to really search to find foreign made products on shelf, and assembled in America was not a suitable stand in for made in the USA. In my father's and grandfather's time, not only were nearly all things made in America, but they also would state what city or town they were made in. For example, rather than stating, "Made in USA," the items would state, "Reading Penn," or "Bottled in Lebanon, Pa.," or "Lancaster Penn." Most of the old things owned by my former generations were locally manufactured, and out of state items were rare finds.
The United States has been in a state of constant decline ever since the late 1950s. The reason why people think it's getting better is because they're either making it, self-centered, and cannot see all the struggling people around them, or the public school system that's propagandized them has turned them into parroting minions that aren't capable of independent thought.
Record numbers of people on Social Security Disability Insurance, Food Stamps, Welfare, and other forms of public assistance should be indicators that things are bad. The lion's share of people turning to these forms of the dole aren't doing it because they're lazy. They're doing it because it makes more sense to survive on such systems rather than fail on minimum wage. Few jobs today pay a living wage, and with each decade after 1973, it's gotten exponentially worse. We went from one families of 4 or more living on one income to families of 3 having two full time incomes and at least one part time income just to make it, and it's not all due to frivolous spending. There was far more frivolous spending in the 1950s through 1970s than we have today because people back then had more disposable income.
I'm realistic about this. I'd rather have lived in the 1890s - 1910 or perpetually be stuck in the late 1940s or very early 1950s because times were far easier.
Last edited by bolillo_loco; 04-10-2013 at 09:52 AM..
Reason: No Rhodes scholar here
They didn't give up; their hand was forced. Plus, I don't think the same result would be achieved if the UK was facing a loss of its empire in today's culture. Even as it is there is a lot of hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing there about what many perceive to be the UK's continued decline.
I agree that the cost of empire is usually greater than the reward, but I don't see us making a smooth transition to second-rate power in this era of globalization. Sorry.
It might not necessarily be "smooth", but it doesn't have to be "sudden collapse" either. You most likely won't notice the change until the day there is some regional crisis and the US is not the one being looked to for leadership in navigating it.
You are very correct though that rampant globalization has changed the game. However, that is why I don't see it as some sort of catastrophic collapse, but a gradual backing off as emerging powers take on a greater role within their own regions. The influence and power of the US will still be great, but we will not be a "super power" more of the "greatest among the great powers".
Quote:
Originally Posted by augiedogie
Garson, In case you hadn't noticed, things actually have gotten worse. Out of wedlock births, up, immorality, porn all up. The effects are palpable. Our poverty rate, our labor participation rate, the numbers of people on food stamps all way up from past twenty years. What people feared would happen has, and now we are in debt up to our eyeballs, in part because of these things, since government subsidizes or funds all kinds of programs for people who are nothing but a drag on society and contribute nothing.
I truly fail to see what the morality issues you mention have to do with anything. The impacts you are ascribing to those moral causes are a result of the current, changing economy. All of the issues you highlighted were present in the late 90's and mid-00's, but none of the effects you claim as a result were present.
It would most likely greatly surprise you that these are the actual federal costs for the programs that support the poor:
Sounds like a lot of money right? Well, we spend roughly $1.2+ trillion on defense and defense related initiatives. The US alone accounts for roughly 41% of direct global military spending (it increases to nearly 60% when all defense related activities are included) and is greater then the next 14 nations in the top 15 combined. The last Federal budget spent $3.538 trillion and took in $2.449 trillion in revenue, a deficit of over $1 trillion. As a share of total spending these programs are around 8% of total federal outlays and eliminating all of them would still leave us with over a $700 billion deficit.
I'm all for reforming these programs in many ways, but to say that the problem with the US is related to "morality and poverty" is simply not true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayton Sux
I'd be more interested if he would explore the road to collaspe a bit more....and what the end state would be.
....I, personally, sometimes wonder if we are going to head to a catastrophic Weimar Repubic style currency collapse.
...and as difficult a period of time as that was for Germany, by 1924 the currency had been stabilized and the economy was recovering.
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