Westward Expansion (Houston, Pasadena, Beaumont: tax, living in, shopping centers)

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

I’m not comparing Houston to DFW or Atlanta. Im just stating my observation of Houston in my lifetime. The rapid growth of the city in my lifetime has existed near the edge of the Eastern border of Downtown and whatever line you want to draw going south to the medical center. Everything West is rapidly growing. Suburb or city limits. Big development or small.

What developments do I notice have spring up on the west side of this line? River Oaks District. The Post Oak Hotel. BBVA Stadium (right on the edge). Texas Medical Center expansion. Office tower after office tower. Subdivision after subdivision. On the west side? Not so much. There’s a new 7 eleven and Chic Fil A across from Buc Ee’s in Baytown and that was noticeable to me. On the West, you can’t keep up with these new businesses. I’m only slightly exaggerating.

Maybe you’re right that Greater Houston’s high growth areas extend a radian or two more than Atlanta or DFW. But it’s pretty obvious which side of Houston is high growth and which isn’t.

The ship channel, Baytown refinery etc has to be built at some point so I’m sure there was a point in time that east was high growth but that’s certainly not the case today.

Actually Baytown and Mont Belvieu are adding quite a lot of residential right now. A large masterplanned community was recently announced for Mont Belvieu, including relatively dense housing. There was another one announced a couple years ago, but I don't think it's moved much yet.

No question that in the core especially, the west side has dominated historically, though the changes near the line you're mentioning are actually pretty recent (generally post-2000). But in terms of residential suburbia, especially outer suburbia, it truly is nearly a 360-degree ring of rapid growth anymore.

Keep in mind that you have to get quite a bit of rooftops before you get the commercial, so some areas haven't quite had their commercial explosion yet, but it's coming. I remember in the 1990s when the Katy area, our prime western suburb, had a large residential population (probably 150,000), but pretty limited retail (a few basic strip centers and chain restaurants, some grocery stores). That didn't explode until around 2000 and later. A similar pattern happened in Cypress - big residential population with no retail until Walmart opened in the 2000s. So there can actually be a large amount of growth of housing that isn't necessarily immediately visible from the freeway; you don't really feel it until the commercial starts exploding. The northeast is having a commercial explosion right now around Valley Ranch (GP @ US 59/I-69). And of course on the SE, League City has grown ridiculously fast and has now exceeded 100,000 people just in its city limits I believe.

[Mr. Clutch]

Originally Posted by brock2010

Do you think Houston will pull away from DFW and Atlanta and become more dense in the core?

I think long-term it has the best prospects for doing so, particularly when it comes to DFW (which i'm not sure is even more dense than Central Houston today). Atlanta strikes me as a bit denser. A lot of it will come to the provision of transportation at the end of the day.

Certainly possible though.

[SouthernBoy205]

It’s crazy how Waller is getting in on the growth too.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

It’s crazy how Waller is getting in on the growth too.

Speaking of Waller…

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...t-16769364.php

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

Speaking of Waller…

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...t-16769364.php

I do think the 290 corridor outside the GP and north of the upper Cypress Creek drainage area / Katy Prairie Conservancy is going to be the really hot area going forward because of land availability compared to what's available in the Katy Freeway corridor anymore on this side of the Brazos. And as I've said, I don't think the full-scale jump to Sealy is a near term thing, especially not when you do have the 290 corridor available (and finished). If/when the 36A project happens, it will be the bridge between the two.

[SouthernBoy205]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

Speaking of Waller…

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...t-16769364.php

Wow. That’s insane!

That’s right by Prairie View. Seems like this project will help merge Cypress and PV together.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

Speaking of Waller…

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...t-16769364.php

Wow that's a lot for that area. I wonder if 290 will be eventually upgraded to freeway standards to Austin?

[hbcu]

Prairie View ain't getting in on the act until Waller decides it wants to stop - the areas outside Waller will have to cooperate as it's half/residential half farmland to connect Cypress and Waller

[NigerianNightmare]

While Westward expansion is obvious for the city. I feel like Sprawl wise the most distance covered is still the South/SE direction heading to Galveston and Central Montgomery seems a lot more populated and further out, than Rosenberg/Old Richmond or Brookshire or the area of Cypress past the outlet mall, so I don’t even know if purely West is 2nd in terms of outright sprawl. It has some of the most meaningful growth though.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

While Westward expansion is obvious for the city. I feel like Sprawl wise the most distance covered is still the South/SE direction heading to Galveston and Central Montgomery seems a lot more populated and further out, than Rosenberg/Old Richmond or Brookshire or the area of Cypress past the outlet mall, so I don’t even know if purely West is 2nd in terms of outright sprawl. It has some of the most meaningful growth though.

Some of this has had to do with school districts and zones. 290 residential growth was delayed because developers have been unsure of market response to Waller ISD. Westward, developers have tried to fill in Katy ISD and northern LCISD first because they were more confident in market response than for Royal ISD (apart from the least inexpensive starter homes). If you can establish market confidence in a district or some portion of it, then development usually takes off much faster. This what Tavola has had to navigate in New Caney ISD, for example.