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Looks like the release date is now March 2024 based on July 2023 data. It could be that it's just adding up the 2023 estimated populations of the counties in the current metro definition instead of an actual re-definition. If that's the case, it doesn't really add much that we don't already know.
Here are OMB's previous metro definitions, with the latest being March 2020. I guess just bookmark and keep checking this site. Looks like the release dates are sort of random instead of following a schedule: https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...bulletins.html
Thanks for that.
This process is so cryptic. I know for a fact, according to census bureau, that the realignments happen on a rolling 5 year basis. Looking back at older threads in the Columbia forum, I read that the last realignments were in 2018. I just don’t understand if that means the realignments are released every 5 years or if the realignments are released based on the rolling 5 year data (but just the following year, like March of 2024 that you mentioned). That’s what confuses me. It could very well be March of 2024 when they release that.
I skimmed through the second link and found an email for inquiries. I sent an email to an official there asking to clear this up. Although, as you mentioned, this document is from 2020 so I hope this guy still works there haha I’ll let y’all know if I hear anything.
This process is so cryptic. I know for a fact, according to census bureau, that the realignments happen on a rolling 5 year basis. Looking back at older threads in the Columbia forum, I read that the last realignments were in 2018. I just don’t understand if that means the realignments are released every 5 years or if the realignments are released based on the rolling 5 year data (but just the following year, like March of 2024 that you mentioned). That’s what confuses me. It could very well be March of 2024 when they release that.
I skimmed through the second link and found an email for inquiries. I sent an email to an official there asking to clear this up. Although, as you mentioned, this document is from 2020 so I hope this guy still works there haha I’ll let y’all know if I hear anything.
The last realignment or redefinition or whatever they call it was March 2020. So it'll be 2 more years if it's on a 5 year schedule. Nothing changed for the Huntsville metro then, but Birmingham lost Walker County, and Mobile added Washington County (but it's a very rural county with low population).
The last realignment or redefinition or whatever they call it was March 2020. So it'll be 2 more years if it's on a 5 year schedule. Nothing changed for the Huntsville metro then, but Birmingham lost Walker County, and Mobile added Washington County (but it's a very rural county with low population).
Ok, so there's a bit more clarity on this, I think..
The person I reached out to responded yesterday with no answer, but a link to a massive read on the subject.
Here's what he attached and, if I'm reading this correctly, it seems true that the updated delineations/realignments will be updated next month, June of 2023.
Hi Nick,
You can find the update schedule in Section D of OMB's 2020 Standards for Delineating Core Based Statistical Areas.
Scroll down to D. OMB's Decisions Regarding Changes to the 2010 Standards for Delineating Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
Once you get there scroll a bit more and you'll see a little table that says the next "Decennial Delineation" is in June of 2023.
As described in the final 2020 standards in Section E, OMB will release three different types of updates. (1) Annual Updates—These updates would address qualification of new metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas and typically would affect a small number of counties. (In some years, there may be no updates warranted by the data.) (2) Five-Year (“mid-decade”) Update—This broader update would include: Qualification of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, qualification of outlying counties, merging of adjacent metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas, qualification of principal cities, categorization of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, qualification of metropolitan divisions, qualification of combined statistical areas, and titling of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, metropolitan divisions, and combined statistical areas. (3) Decennial Delineation—The initial re-delineation following adoption of revised standards would include all of the changes listed for the five-year update, plus the qualification of central counties.
Ok, so there's a bit more clarity on this, I think..
The person I reached out to responded yesterday with no answer, but a link to a massive read on the subject.
Here's what he attached and, if I'm reading this correctly, it seems true that the updated delineations/realignments will be updated next month, June of 2023.
Hi Nick,
You can find the update schedule in Section D of OMB's 2020 Standards for Delineating Core Based Statistical Areas.
Scroll down to D. OMB's Decisions Regarding Changes to the 2010 Standards for Delineating Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
Once you get there scroll a bit more and you'll see a little table that says the next "Decennial Delineation" is in June of 2023.
As described in the final 2020 standards in Section E, OMB will release three different types of updates. (1) Annual Updates—These updates would address qualification of new metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas and typically would affect a small number of counties. (In some years, there may be no updates warranted by the data.) (2) Five-Year (“mid-decade”) Update—This broader update would include: Qualification of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, qualification of outlying counties, merging of adjacent metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas, qualification of principal cities, categorization of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, qualification of metropolitan divisions, qualification of combined statistical areas, and titling of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, metropolitan divisions, and combined statistical areas. (3) Decennial Delineation—The initial re-delineation following adoption of revised standards would include all of the changes listed for the five-year update, plus the qualification of central counties.
So, based on that, the March 2020 update was just a mini-update, if you will. The major 5-year will be upcoming next month then.
Thanks. Actually finding the information in June might be the challenge though. Wonder how the increase in work from home people will be handled since they're not actually commuting.
So, based on that, the March 2020 update was just a mini-update, if you will. The major 5-year will be upcoming next month then.
Thanks. Actually finding the information in June might be the challenge though. Wonder how the increase in work from home people will be handled since they're not actually commuting.
That’s what I gathered, as well. I just hope they stick with the June 2023 announcement date.
That’s a good point you make… They do mention the change in commuting patterns due to the pandemic. If I understood correctly, they mention that it will acutely affect the mid-decade 2028 delineation updates and they have until then to decide how they will measure that.
If I missed something feel free to add but that’s what I understood from it.
That’s what I gathered, as well. I just hope they stick with the June 2023 announcement date.
That’s a good point you make… They do mention the change in commuting patterns due to the pandemic. If I understood correctly, they mention that it will acutely affect the mid-decade 2028 delineation updates and they have until then to decide how they will measure that.
If I missed something feel free to add but that’s what I understood from it.
I think you have it covered pretty well.
One thing I question is the population estimate for the city of Madison. It increased, but with the numerous apartments that are being built, with many of them finished and occupied (like the Ballpark complex, along with the Collins in Town Madison, plus many more around the city), I think the population has probably increased much faster than the official estimate.
BTW - the next metro update will have to refer to the area as Huntsville-Madison MSA, or possibly even Huntsville-Madison-Decatur MSA. Madison has surpassed the 50K point so will get its name included if they stick to previous methods. Our little town has grown up (but still not much tax-infusing retail). Athens is also growing rapidly.
One thing I question is the population estimate for the city of Madison. It increased, but with the numerous apartments that are being built, with many of them finished and occupied (like the Ballpark complex, along with the Collins in Town Madison, plus many more around the city), I think the population has probably increased much faster than the official estimate.
These interim population counts can be erroneous. Remember that New York state was projected to be at risk of losing two house seats, but when the census numbers came in they only lost one seat and were very close to keeping that one.
Also lots of city population projections for 2019 had big changes once the 2020 numbers rolled in.
I'm not even sure how these estimates are made, maybe somebody here knows.
These interim population counts can be erroneous. Remember that New York state was projected to be at risk of losing two house seats, but when the census numbers came in they only lost one seat and were very close to keeping that one.
Also lots of city population projections for 2019 had big changes once the 2020 numbers rolled in.
I'm not even sure how these estimates are made, maybe somebody here knows.
I think they define how the estimates are done, but a lot of it doesn't make much sense unless you're in that business.
Yes, I remember the New York thing. And I seem to recall that Atlanta's estimated population was way off right before the 2010 census.
Huntsville's estimate was well off too. I believe the estimate right before the census numbers were released had it right at 200,000 and then the real numbers came in at 215,000 - a 7.5% increase over the estimate. Can we trust the real numbers? No idea. Have the cities of Birmingham, Mobile, and Jackson MS really decreased as much as they say?
One thing I question is the population estimate for the city of Madison. It increased, but with the numerous apartments that are being built, with many of them finished and occupied (like the Ballpark complex, along with the Collins in Town Madison, plus many more around the city), I think the population has probably increased much faster than the official estimate.
One thing that is unknown is whether the people occupying these new apartment complexes are new residents of Madison or are just moving across town. That makes a difference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg
Have the cities of Birmingham, Mobile, and Jackson MS really decreased as much as they say?
What is unknown is where the people that left these cities moved to. If they moved to neighboring suburbs or to a surrounding rural areas then the metro area population may not have changed.
One thing that is unknown is whether the people occupying these new apartment complexes are new residents of Madison or are just moving across town. That makes a difference.
What is unknown is where the people that left these cities moved to. If they moved to neighboring suburbs or to a surrounding rural areas then the metro area population may not have changed.
I'll guess it's mostly new people moving in, but I have no way of backing up that supposition. Out of state license plates are in abundance though. Maybe a drive through one of the new complexes parking lot looking for other plates could provide an answer.
In Jackson's case, the home county (Hinds County) has shrunk just as fast as the city has. But Madison (MS) and Rankin Counties have increased, but I don't think enough to make up for the central losses and nowhere near as much Madison County, AL, has grown. Their metro (which is an insane 7 or 8 counties) has pretty much stayed the same.
Mobile County has lost residents (Madison County should surpass it in July's 2023 estimates), and so has their metro since it only contains Mobile County and Washington County, which is basically unpopulated. It's possible they could pick up Baldwin County next time around but that's not a done deal since lots of people live and work in the southern half of the county. Baldwin County, I think, is either the largest or one of the largest counties in the state in land area.
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Have the cities of Birmingham, Mobile, and Jackson MS really decreased as much as they say?
