Phased Reopening (Portland, Salem, Reedsport: home, living, restaurants)

[Larry Caldwell]

News last night was that my county is planning on reopening on Saturday. We have been static at 23 known cases and 0 deaths, after 700+ negative tests. Douglas County is the size of the State of Connecticut with about 225,000 residents.

Governor Brown wants to open areas of the state in phases. I have to agree that there is no reason to penalize a county where rural isolation is a way of life just because the Portland Metro area is promiscuous. I'm still nervous that it will trigger a rapid spread of coronavirus. We'll see, I guess.

[Larry Caldwell]

I was mistaken. Apparently the governor has not approved it yet, three counties have sent a proposal to her.

[Silverfall]

Yes, it makes sense to let the rural counties reopen first and give it a couple of weeks to see if people can social distancing while out and about. I think in their proposal that they had to confirm that they have enough PPE and beds to take care of any increases.

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

Yes, it makes sense to let the rural counties reopen first and give it a couple of weeks to see if people can social distancing while out and about. I think in their proposal that they had to confirm that they have enough PPE and beds to take care of any increases.

Actually no it doesn't. As I heard somebody else put it, that is the equivalent of having a peeing section in a swimming pool.

The cases are just now ramping up on the South Coast. Until April 9 we had zero cases. Now we have at least nine cases in Curry County, Coos County and Reedsport. If they start opening up now, it's going to be bad. Fortunately I don't think the Governor is going to let that happen. There has to be at least a 14 day downward trend, and I don't see that happening for a while. I don't think 0 to 9 will qualify as a downward trend.

[Silverfall]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

Actually no it doesn't. As I heard somebody else put it, that is the equivalent of having a peeing section in a swimming pool.

The cases are just now ramping up on the South Coast. Until April 9 we had zero cases. Now we have at least nine cases in Curry County, Coos County and Reedsport. If they start opening up now, it's going to be bad. Fortunately I don't think the Governor is going to let that happen. There has to be at least a 14 day downward trend, and I don't see that happening for a while. I don't think 0 to 9 will qualify as a downward trend.

Yes, she will let it happen. She is opening up medical procedures first across the state. Then waiting to see if people can still social distance and stay home except for when they have to go out for things. It isn't like the Valley or coast will be on the opening soon list.

It doesn't sound like those counties are eligible to be opened up since they are having cases. Believe it or not, there are some counties in Oregon that don't have new cases and some that have no cases. She is talking about opening up those rural counties.

For the rural counties, they can't just go willy nilly and open everything up. There will still be no gatherings. She will just open up them first, and slowly. She will be slow and methodical about it.

[karlsch]

Select Oregon on this map and you will see that there are counties with very few or zero coronavirus cases:
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-...423/index.html

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

Yes, she will let it happen. She is opening up medical procedures first across the state. Then waiting to see if people can still social distance and stay home except for when they have to go out for things. It isn't like the Valley or coast will be on the opening soon list.

It doesn't sound like those counties are eligible to be opened up since they are having cases. Believe it or not, there are some counties in Oregon that don't have new cases and some that have no cases. She is talking about opening up those rural counties.

For the rural counties, they can't just go willy nilly and open everything up. There will still be no gatherings. She will just open up them first, and slowly. She will be slow and methodical about it.

Yeah, the entire South Coast was like that too. No cases until two weeks ago. But it finally got here somehow. Do you seriously think those rural counties would have no cases if not for the shut down? If travelers were coming through and eating at restaurants, do you think the locals would just magically build a shield around themselves to keep from getting the virus? Of course not. That is the shutdown working.

Also most of the counties you are talking about, that have no cases, is because they are not testing. If you don't test, of course, you can't have positives. Wheeler County, has tested exactly eight people as of today. Surprise, surprise, they have no COVID-19 cases. Who would think?

PORTLAND, Ore. — It’s been nearly a month since Gov. Kate Brown issued a statewide stay-home order to curb the spread of the coronavirus. As the days add up and it appears Oregon may have passed the peak of its pandemic curve, many Oregonians have begun shifting their focus to when the state will begin easing social and economic restrictions.

That includes state Republican leaders who on Monday called for the governor to lift restrictions in rural counties.

In response to that call for action, Gov. Brown’s office provided a little more detail as to what reopening the state may look like. Brown and her administration have been weighing different options including the possibility of lifting restrictions sooner in some areas than others.

“Reopening Oregon is not a process that will happen overnight or statewide all at once, and we recognize that some areas of the state will take longer to reopen than others,” a statement from Gov. Brown’s office said.

However, she did not release a time frame and tweeted "this is going to move much slower than any of us want, but that is the only way to protect the health and safety of Oregonians.”

When will Oregon reopen businesses_ _ kgw.com

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by karlsch

Select Oregon on this map and you will see that there are counties with very few or zero coronavirus cases:
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-...423/index.html

Here is another map that shows what counties have no COVID-19 cases. They are all very lightly populated counties that are doing little to no testing. I'm pretty sure that unless this pandemic ends very soon, which I doubt it will, it's just a matter of time before every single county in the country will be infected. More then likely they already are. It's just a matter of doing the testing to find the cases.



File_COVID-19 Outbreak Cases in the United States by counties (Confirmed).svg - Wikipedia

[pavedwithgold]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

Here is another map that shows what counties have no COVID-19 cases. They are all very lightly populated counties that are doing little to no testing. I'm pretty sure that unless this pandemic ends very soon, which I doubt it will, it's just a matter of time before every single county in the country will be infected. More then likely they already are. It's just a matter of doing the testing to find the cases.



File_COVID-19 Outbreak Cases in the United States by counties (Confirmed).svg - Wikipedia

You can't go by this map. See that little white spot in Arkansas, over to the left? That's Montgomery county. I own a cabin there. The population is under 9,000 and its very rural. VERY. Its mostly forests, state and national parks, and a place for people to bring boats and go fishing on Lake Ouachita. Since very little recreation is happening there now, that is also not going on. There's no Walmarts or anything there, people drive to Hot Springs for that in Garland County. Mt. Ida is the county seat. 981 people, 412 households.
And Montgomery County is home to retirees, a nursing home and an assisted living center, which makes its population, on average, older----the economy is poultry farming, ranching, and tourism.

"I think there's some [cases] here; it's just simply because we haven't had enough people tested," Jones said. "If every other county's had it, we're bound to have it" County Judge Sammy Jones said.

[Silverfall]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

Yeah, the entire South Coast was like that too. No cases until two weeks ago. But it finally got here somehow. Do you seriously think those rural counties would have no cases if not for the shut down? If travelers were coming through and eating at restaurants, do you think the locals would just magically build a shield around themselves to keep from getting the virus? Of course not. That is the shutdown working.

Also most of the counties you are talking about, that have no cases, is because they are not testing. If you don't test, of course, you can't have positives. Wheeler County, has tested exactly eight people as of today. Surprise, surprise, they have no COVID-19 cases. Who would think?



When will Oregon reopen businesses_ _ kgw.com

What people are going to go traveling anywhere? That's crazy talk. Just because a county opens up doesn't mean that people are going to go there in droves.

There are a whopping 1400 people in the entire Wheeler County. There are more than 1400 people out and
about every day just at Lowe's in Salem every day. I have a better chance of getting Covid from someone at my local store than someone in Wheeler County, even if I went and vacationed there. You could send 1400 vacationers there doubling the population, and I would still have a better chance of getting Covid here locally than I would on vacation there.

You can tell them they need to stay at home if it makes you feel better, but in reality, it is meaningless there. Why pretend that Wheeler being ordered to stay at home has any sort of significant impact on the spread? It is the valley that is the problem.