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The interesting part not really in the calculation is the effect of autonomous vehicles. If that happens and people start using AV taxis more and more and less purchase cars, then the transition will be faster.
Well some on here will now lambast you from now on for what they think is a preposterous idea.
Consider that I made a thread where I guessed that in 2030 "only" 50% of new vehicle sales would be EVs in 2030 and most found that laughable.
I haven't adjusted my target yet.
This pandemic has really seemed to push several European governments and major auto markets to really go heavy on ZEVs, and I simply can’t imagine that any automaker that goes in for making a profit on vehicles there and the heavy r&d an automaker would need to do to profit on such vehicles in Europe would not in turn try to broaden the base from which to recoup those costs and sell them for the US market as well.
Well some on here will now lambast you from now on for what they think is a preposterous idea.
Consider that I made a thread where I guessed that in 2030 "only" 50% of new vehicle sales would be EVs in 2030 and most found that laughable.
I haven't adjusted my target yet.
I doubt it will be 50%. I'd guess in 2030 somewhere around 20-25% will be some type of EV, but most of that will be hybrids. 2019 around 4% were hybrids or EVs.
This pandemic has really seemed to push several European governments and major auto markets to really go heavy on ZEVs, and I simply can’t imagine that any automaker that goes in for making a profit on vehicles there and the heavy r&d an automaker would need to do to profit on such vehicles in Europe would not in turn try to broaden the base from which to recoup those costs and sell them for the US market as well.
Selling them at a profit means charging more for them than most consumers are willing to pay. Even with generous tax breaks on them most car companies are having a hard time moving their EVs. Tesla is the lone exception because 1) they've managed to carve out a niche for themselves by building an entire culture around their product, and 2) even they are selling their cars at a loss but they make up the difference by selling carbon offsets to other car companies.
Selling them at a profit means charging more for them than most consumers are willing to pay. Even with generous tax breaks on them most car companies are having a hard time moving their EVs. Tesla is the lone exception because 1) they've managed to carve out a niche for themselves by building an entire culture around their product, and 2) even they are selling their cars at a loss but they make up the difference by selling carbon offsets to other car companies.
Yes, but what is the primary reason for why those vehicles are more expensive? The primary cost add per unit is for the battery, right? It’s not the motors and much of the rest of the vehicle is essentially the same. However, battery prices have continued to plummet, have done so at a faster rate than expected and show little sign of stopping. There’s also the larger structural cost of needing to put in the research, development, and design costs for building these vehicles and for how to create that process. That’s a massive cost and for little benefit if they can simply iterate on their ICE vehicles, but their hands being forced now to create a massive pool of these vehicles. If they then must necessarily sell these vehicles in large quantities, then it forces a competition for selling EVs profitably and en masse.
It’s probably not true that Tesla is selling on a loss per unit. They do get credits for offset, but those credits are a small fraction of their total revenue while Tesla has been spending a massive amount scaling up and creating new product and factories. None of that matters so much though, because Tesla is only one of several automakers making a play for market dominance in this now very EV focused European market.
Did you see my response to your previous post? I went through the points you mentioned. Was there something in there that did not ring true?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-19-2020 at 09:43 PM..
As much talk as there is in Europe to push EV production, the big hangup is that a large percentage of the population is urban. A huge percentage of the urban population don't live in single family homes, they live in dense multi-unit, multi-story buildings. And a huge percentage don't have a dedicated off street parking place, if they own a car at all. They park the little cars whereever a space can be found. The only way to re-charge is if pay charging stations are set up like parking meters along curbs all over these cities. The task of doing that would be mind-boggling.
I have an apartment near Leipzig, Germany and don't have a car of my own. I subscribe to a regional car-sharing service that has a fleet parking lot just down the street from my apartment building. A smart phone app lets me see what cars are available in the lot, and I can reserve it in a few seconds. I show up and drive away. The car sharing service recently installed charging stations at some of the fleet parking lots, and is going to put more at all of the lots within the next year or two. Then they will start swapping out more and more of the gasoline powered cars for EVs. They will still have some gas powered cars to use, for people needing a car for multiple days, beyond the typical range of the EV.
As much talk as there is in Europe to push EV production, the big hangup is that a large percentage of the population is urban. A huge percentage of the urban population don't live in single family homes, they live in dense multi-unit, multi-story buildings. And a huge percentage don't have a dedicated off street parking place, if they own a car at all. They park the little cars whereever a space can be found. The only way to re-charge is if pay charging stations are set up like parking meters along curbs all over these cities. The task of doing that would be mind-boggling.
I have an apartment near Leipzig, Germany and don't have a car of my own. I subscribe to a regional car-sharing service that has a fleet parking lot just down the street from my apartment building. A smart phone app lets me see what cars are available in the lot, and I can reserve it in a few seconds. I show up and drive away. The car sharing service recently installed charging stations at some of the fleet parking lots, and is going to put more at all of the lots within the next year or two. Then they will start swapping out more and more of the gasoline powered cars for EVs. They will still have some gas powered cars to use, for people needing a car for multiple days, beyond the typical range of the EV.
Right, but we’re talking about a decade from now. The Nissan Leaf’s top range when released in December 2010 was 73 miles, but in 2019, the top range of the Leaf was 226 miles. The Model S’s top range when released in June 2012 was 265 miles and in 2020 it’s now 402 miles. At some point, there’s probably going to be a slowdown on how much more battery advancements really need to go that far into pure range increases, and charging in cities could be a combination of parking chargers and fast charging stations that are akin to gas stations.
That’s less of a problem in the US where SFH is much more popular, but obviously Europe has been swinging heavily in not just production of EVs, but uptake as well despite its highly urban population. Germany just hit a record month for EVs last month (8.4% market share compared to 3.4% last year) and this is before the main heavy hitter for the German automakers, the VW ID.3 and its variants, has been released.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-19-2020 at 10:09 PM..
I'm curious about this since it seems like various European countries are really taking off with ZEVs this year, especially plugin hybrids and pure battery electric. GM supposedly has a very aggressive roadmap. Nissan's big announcement signaling its change in direction is a somewhat affordable electric crossover. Toyota's RAV4 Prime is getting rave reviews. I have been guessing that plugins would by 10% or more of new vehicles by some time in 2023 and over 50% by 2028, but is anyone thinking that latter stretch will be even more aggressive than that?
To help others not into the XYZ, how about initially explain what the acronym of "ZEV" stands for?
To help others not into the XYZ, how about initially explain what the acronym of "ZEV" stands for?
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Zero emissions vehicles—it’s a misnomer but it generally refers to plugin vehicles that have batteries or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Arguably, if someone doesn’t know what ZEV is already, unless they’re not a native English speaker, then it’s possible they don’t have much interest in weighing in on the discussion.
Well some on here will now lambast you from now on for what they think is a preposterous idea.
Consider that I made a thread where I guessed that in 2030 "only" 50% of new vehicle sales would be EVs in 2030 and most found that laughable.
I haven't adjusted my target yet.
Ummm which thread was that?
And its still preposterous.
Last edited by Vic Romano; 07-20-2020 at 12:25 AM..
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