Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm curious about this since it seems like various European countries are really taking off with ZEVs this year, especially plugin hybrids and pure battery electric. GM supposedly has a very aggressive roadmap. Nissan's big announcement signaling its change in direction is a somewhat affordable electric crossover. Toyota's RAV4 Prime is getting rave reviews. I have been guessing that plugins would by 10% or more of new vehicles by some time in 2023 and over 50% by 2028, but is anyone thinking that latter stretch will be even more aggressive than that?
I joke with people that my Volt burns coal. Really though, it does, about 70 miles away at the power plant. There's very little "renewable energy" around these parts.
Europe's regulatory environment is much more aggressively pushing automakers toward electrics. They're not doing it out of benevolent concern for the environment or in response to organic market demand. Neither the regulatory market nor the organic demand is strong enough here to to create a scenario where even a majority of sales are electrics, much less "almost entirely" electrics in just 9 model years. The vast expanses between population centers in some parts of the country and the lack of places for many urban dwellers to plug in while they park overnight on the streets make the logistics of going "almost entirely electric" by then pretty slim.
And then there's just the practical fact that batteries will never come anywhere close to competing with liquid fuels for energy density.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreggT
I think it will be a lot longer away than that. The infrastructure will take years.
The good news is 90%+ of the infrastructure is already there since we have a thoroughly developed electrical grid reaching all populated corners of the country, be they urban or rural. All that's left to do now is to tap into the grid with charging stations.
I joke with people that my Volt burns coal. Really though, it does, about 70 miles away at the power plant. There's very little "renewable energy" around these parts.
You talking about Plant Barry and its scenic coal ash ponds?
Europe's regulatory environment is much more aggressively pushing automakers toward electrics. They're not doing it out of benevolent concern for the environment or in response to organic market demand. Neither the regulatory market nor the organic demand is strong enough here to to create a scenario where even a majority of sales are electrics, much less "almost entirely" electrics in just 9 model years. The vast expanses between population centers in some parts of the country and the lack of places for many urban dwellers to plug in while they park overnight on the streets make the logistics of going "almost entirely electric" by then pretty slim.
And then there's just the practical fact that batteries will never come anywhere close to competing with liquid fuels for energy density.
The good news is 90%+ of the infrastructure is already there since we have a thoroughly developed electrical grid reaching all populated corners of the country, be they urban or rural. All that's left to do now is to tap into the grid with charging stations.
They sure are speeding things up! They’re forcing a level of investment and rollout that probably would have taken many years longer to do. However, if automakers selling in Europe are pushed to make investments, then they’ll probably want to recoup more on that investment by selling outside of Europe as well.
I’m a lot less worried about urban dwellers simply because automakers seem to be, for better or worse, trying for long range and fast DC charging and the two generally correlate to each other. Liquid fuels do have higher energy density, but engine efficiency is much lower than motor efficiency in terms of useful work and there is limited possibility of recouping energy such as with regenerative braking. Think about the Model 3 and the targets people have for increasing energy density which almost tripled for battery cells in production over the course of the last decade. The thing charges 75 miles over 5 minutes now. Let’s say you go for just a doubling of energy density. You can go for a flat doubling of the Model 3’s range of 322 miles for 644 miles. Is 644 miles really going to be too little range for a single charge? What’s more, it’s probably better that for every doubling of energy density, that you only increase the total battery capacity by 50% with the rest of that “going into” weight reduction of the battery pack which would boost range from not just more capacity, but also from higher efficiency.
Really though, it’s the plummeting of price per kWh for batteries and the simplicity of motors that are making me reconsider just how fast this changeover will be. My guesses mentioned earlier were from a few years ago, but the average price per kWh has been dropping much faster than just about anyone has projected.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-19-2020 at 08:09 PM..
Well, as long as you aren’t downriver from it! Alabama Power doesn’t seem to be particularly eager to address issues brought up to it. Some of its electrical generation has shifted to natural gas and there’s a chance more will with the glut.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-19-2020 at 07:46 PM..
Well, as long as you aren’t downriver for it! Alabama Power doesn’t seem to be particularly eager to address issues brought up to it. Some of its electrical generation has shifted to natural gas and there’s a chance more will with the glut.
Nah, I'm actually east of it, not downstream.
Alabama Power does actually give me a night time discount on my bill for owning a plug-in hybrid, good for three years and then has to be renewed. They don't advertise it though.
Well some on here will now lambast you from now on for what they think is a preposterous idea.
Consider that I made a thread where I guessed that in 2030 "only" 50% of new vehicle sales would be EVs in 2030 and most found that laughable.
I haven't adjusted my target yet.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
