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That thread was about the future of EVs in the US. Your prediction was 50% of new cars sold in the US would be EV in 10 years (2028). So yes, 50% is preposterous.
THIS thread is about 50% plugins (I'm assuming ZEV is plug in hybrids and EVs, correct me if I'm wrong and not EV only). And sales in the world, not just the US.
It may be possible that ZEV sales may reach 50% in certain countries. That would be because it is mandated by the government and not because people have a choice. However, it is unlikely it will happen in the US, certainly not before 2030.
As I said before in a previous thread, there is an implicit assumption that as the cost of the battery pack goes down, the costs of an EV will go down. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Let's assume that the cost of a battery pack goes down by $4k. The manufacturers will absorb those savings. The federal rebates will eventually go away. EVs are not profitable now and the lower battery cost may (we'll see) enable the auto manufacturers to break even on the EVs. The prices will still be higher than similar ICE cars. That is an impediment to widespread EV purchases. That plus the other points already mentioned will probably put 50% EV purchases in the US out well beyond 2030. Don't even think it will be 50% ZEV.
No OyCrumbler has an open mind to logic and opposing viewpoints. You are merely a sycophant. You are the one who also predicted a 50% crash in ICE resale values in 10 years. One year has passed already and no signs yet...I know you were hoping that would happen with COVID-19. How sad.
Did you even read the title?
This thread is about 100% ZEV new sales, not 50%. In the U.S.
Sure that will include a few fool cells and definitely some plugin hybrids, but to not make this projection more aggressive than mine is to assume plugin hybrids take like 80% of the market in 10 years.
The cost of BEVs is going to go down and get cheaper than hybrids. If you already are going to plan on having the infrastructure to plugin your car, most people are just going to get the cheaper battery only option.
Why wouldn't I believe ICE resale values wouldn't go down in 10 years if most new car sales are ZEVs? That's consistent.
Now if the main reason that ZEVs take over is government mandate, then market inefficiency would make used ICE cars maintain higher prices still. So it would have to be more organic transition for that prediction to come true.
"Almost entirely"? No I don't think so. I think there's a good chance that EVs may be the dominant seller in another 10 years, but before EVS are virtually the entire new vehicle market? I think that's *at least* 20 years off...and it could be more. Even when most of the downsides of EVs are eliminated, I think ICE vehicles will "have a long tail". Some people will just prefer them, just because.
That's sort of where my thinking is as well, but I've been lately kind of going through how I came to this process and the pandemic and the subsequent actions of European countries in reaction to the pandemic, especially in regards to economic stimulus, has made me start reconsidering a few things. On a gut level, I'm mostly in agreement with you because I've been previously projecting plugins having a majority new vehicle market share by 2028 which is pretty close to what you're saying, minus a couple of years and perhaps with a majority not being quite the same as dominant. That being said, I think I started saying those projections a couple of years ago and now I think things are in a different place with how better than expected battery improvements have happened and how hard Europe and South Korea are planning to pivot towards ZEVs since the pandemic. The former is home to many automakers and a massive market, the latter is home to a major automaker as well as major battery makers. That would almost necessarily have an effect on how quickly automakers, including US-based ones, shift towards ZEVs.
I think maybe it'd help if I tried to put things down in numbers and more strict definitions for what I'm saying as maybe there's too much gray area in what I'm saying. I'll define almost entirely as in 95% and up. I'm thinking of ZEVs mostly as fully battery electric vehicles, plugin battery electric hybrids that have a substantial battery capacity above 16 kWh (about the cut-off for full US federal tax credits) and over 30 miles of electric-only range, fuel cell vehicles, and fuel cell-battery electric hybrids. I'm sure there's plenty of other interesting niche ZEV technologies out there, but I don't really have those in mind, and I'm definitely not thinking that fuel cells become ubiquitous for personal vehicles. I'm also thinking specifically about passenger cars and light-duty SUVs and pickup trucks that are often used for personal driving and excluding semis, buses, large cargo vans, and the like.
Add'd:
It's basically two things: what are comparable ICE and EV vehicles in 2030 going to have over one another and which of these are going to have a guaranteed amount of market share in certain major markets.
The projection for battery production costs and improvements, on even the conservative side with a notable slowdown in improvements over the 2020s compared to the 2010s, are supposedly going to put EVs at a favorable comparison. Right now, some of the argument for EVs is based on exchanging a higher upfront vehicle cost for a lower levelized cost of ownership over a number of EVs with EVs having less in maintenance and operation costs. However, what happens when your upfront vehicle costs and ongoing maintenance and operation costs are both notably lower for EVs? The projected battery cost improvements would essentially be doing that. The other issues with EVs about charging times and number of stations are there, but pretty trivial given the ease of setting up charging stations and that lower battery costs with larger battery packs generally means a faster max charge rate.
Of course, this doesn't mean that established automakers necessarily want to make the costly shift towards EVs as essentially they'd have to convert a lot of production facilities over to create a product that competes with something they're already familiar with and have on hand. It'd probably be much easier to not have to make the large investment to make such a change and keep on making variations of the same widgets. However, that's something that's increasingly going to be unavailable for automakers in several major markets including home markets of some major automakers. They'll by necessity need to make those improvements, and though there will be some level of direct and indirect government support in doing so, it will still be costly. They'll need to invest a lot into making the transition and then a lot in making that transition with competitive vehicles as multiple automakers will need to make that shift and they're still going to be competing with each other. That transition and competition should theoretically mean that EVs are going to rapidly improve among automakers that want a crack at profits in these countries, but also will want to get more back from these investments by also selling them in other markets such as the US.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-21-2020 at 09:46 AM..
This thread is about 100% ZEV new sales, not 50%. In the U.S.
Sure that will include a few fool cells and definitely some plugin hybrids, but to not make this projection more aggressive than mine is to assume plugin hybrids take like 80% of the market in 10 years.
The cost of BEVs is going to go down and get cheaper than hybrids. If you already are going to plan on having the infrastructure to plugin your car, most people are just going to get the cheaper battery only option.
Why wouldn't I believe ICE resale values wouldn't go down in 10 years if most new car sales are ZEVs? That's consistent.
Now if the main reason that ZEVs take over is government mandate, then market inefficiency would make used ICE cars maintain higher prices still. So it would have to be more organic transition for that prediction to come true.
A few small points--not quite 100%, I just clarified that in the previous post as 95% and above, but yes, in the US. I am including hybrid plugins actually, but not all. I'm also not making a firm projection this to be true. It's more like I'm trying to run through my thought process on how this could be true. I am still sticking with 10% or above plugin new vehicle market share by some time in 2023 and 50% or above for the same in 2028 though.
Well, there’s also solar and wind which have both been hitting some massive growth spurts. Solar panels might be more common in the Northeast than the Deep South, but aren’t particularly common in the Plains States. The top six solar power generating states are not in the north or northeast and include two states on the Gulf, Texas and Florida. Obviously, California and the southwestern states are very, very keen on solar power. In the southeast, it seems like North Carolina has moved its grid towards solar the most.
I'm in the Mobile-Pensacola area and I seldom ever see solar panels. The few houses I have seen with them are very high end homes, not your average middle class dwelling.
I do know of one solar farm that was installed a couple of years ago, however there was mixed reaction to it because it was put on land that could have been reforested with Longleaf pine.
I'm in the Mobile-Pensacola area and I seldom ever see solar panels. The few houses I have seen with them are very high end homes, not your average middle class dwelling.
I do know of one solar farm that was installed a couple of years ago, however there was mixed reaction to it because it was put on land that could have been reforested with Longleaf pine.
Right, I believe Alabama is part of the Deep South. Regionally, it hasn't been very notable for renewable energy, and while the costs of solar panels have dropped dramatically where solar panels for home installation are somewhat easily available for middle class dwellings in some parts of the US, there is significant variation in regards to the costs of such proportional to average middle class in different parts of the US. Solar installation costs probably shift a bit with cost of living from state to state, but probably not that much, and the middle class income band for the Deep South is somewhat lower in raw numbers than that of several other regions and somewhat below the US average. It's not too far off though, so the prices probably need to drop just a wee bit more.
Of course, that's far from the only determinant. Alaska's middle class income band is higher than the US average, but it's definitely not a hotspot for solar panel home installations.
Honestly, big box store roofs and parking lots and parking garages seem like better places to put solar installations than a nice pine grove.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-21-2020 at 10:22 AM..
Europe will be entirely ZEV by 2030. The USA may still use gas until 2050. I expect a market shift around 2040, mainly in the richer regions within every state, because those areas have a high percentage of new car sales.
My next car is going to be a PHEV or BEV, probably getting one within the next 2 years. I see it as a worthwhile investment as I drive a lot for work and having a efficient car is very important to me. I’m not going to accept anything less than 40 mpg because my hybrid sedan from 5 years ago gets that mileage.
Last edited by FrozenI69; 07-21-2020 at 10:54 AM..
This thread is about 100% ZEV new sales, not 50%. In the U.S.
Sure that will include a few fool cells and definitely some plugin hybrids, but to not make this projection more aggressive than mine is to assume plugin hybrids take like 80% of the market in 10 years.
The cost of BEVs is going to go down and get cheaper than hybrids. If you already are going to plan on having the infrastructure to plugin your car, most people are just going to get the cheaper battery only option.
Why wouldn't I believe ICE resale values wouldn't go down in 10 years if most new car sales are ZEVs? That's consistent.
Now if the main reason that ZEVs take over is government mandate, then market inefficiency would make used ICE cars maintain higher prices still. So it would have to be more organic transition for that prediction to come true.
Ah yes, mea culpa on the US part...however he does say in his first thread 50% by 2028. So my answer is no, not 50% in the US by 2028. And entirely ZEV? That's way out there...
BEVs will NOT be cheaper than hybrids for the reasons I stated.
Right, I believe Alabama is part of the Deep South. Regionally, it hasn't been very notable for renewable energy, and while the costs of solar panels have dropped dramatically where solar panels for home installation are somewhat easily available for middle class dwellings in some parts of the US, there is significant variation in regards to the costs of such proportional to average middle class in different parts of the US. Solar installation costs probably shift a bit with cost of living from state to state, but probably not that much, and the middle class income band for the Deep South is somewhat lower in raw numbers than that of several other regions and somewhat below the US average. It's not too far off though, so the prices probably need to drop just a wee bit more.
Of course, that's far from the only determinant. Alaska's middle class income band is higher than the US average, but it's definitely not a hotspot for solar panel home installations.
Honestly, big box store roofs and parking lots and parking garages seem like better places to put solar installations than a nice pine grove.
I'll agree with you on that last part. The roof of a Walmart Supercenter or a huge warehouse would be the ideal place for solar panels.
I'd like to have one of these since it can be folded up when a hurricane is coming... https://smartflower.com/
But, I'm not going to spend $25k for one. I'd be willing to pay $5k for it, but that's about it.
Ah yes, mea culpa on the US part...however he does say in his first thread 50% by 2028. So my answer is no, not 50% in the US by 2028. And entirely ZEV? That's way out there...
BEVs will NOT be cheaper than hybrids for the reasons I stated.
I think we had this discussion before about BEV pricing, and I still stand by what I say for the most part. Most automakers are purchasing batteries and not making them so if their average purchase price is going down, then it's going to be very directly reflected in their cost of producing the vehicle since all the R&D and production facility expenses for the battery were on the battery makers side and they were willing to sell these to the automakers at those prices. Sure, the automakers can pocket the several to tens of thousands of dollars in battery pack savings per car, but like any industry, are they really going to collude without consequence and make sure all the automakers do that or is some automaker going to cut their price for a lower per unit profit, but higher sales and overall profit for themselves?
As for the federal EV credit, I'd be surprised if each of the majors don't run theirs out in the next few years. Right now Tesla and GM are out and the sunset period for Nissan's is pretty close to starting. I'm guessing a lot of the other automakers will try to make sure that when they're close to triggering the sunset period, they'll have a lot of vehicles to rush out because it really is a massive leg-up (and honestly a pretty weird way to do incentives).
I think BEVs will generally be cheaper than hybrids for a large swath of vehicles, budgets, and needs, but hybrids will still come ahead in a few things such as closer to some of the outliers discussed earlier. Remember, that projected $60 per kWh in 2030 drop from $159 per kWh in 2019 is a conservative one that's far less than the drop made in the 2010s and also pre-pandemic. At $60 per kWh, it becomes easy for an automaker to put in a sizable battery pack which in turn generally means much longer range whether in cold or hot weather or flat or mountainous roads and faster top charging rates and to do so while actually having the battery pack cost much less than it would have in 2019. The pre-pandemic part matters because countries where some of the largest automakers in the world are and sizable auto markets have legislated a massive amount of additional investment into this transition and have effectively limited the amount of market share for ICE vehicles and forced all automakers who want to sell vehicles in several important markets to compete specifically with ZEV offerings.
Also, in shifting to talking about 2030 instead of 2028, some of the thinking behind that is that the most popular segments in the US are getting a lot of entries this year and in the next few years to come. Vehicle generations are usually about five to seven years long, right? 2030 then puts is so that these vehicles and each of the major automakers have a vehicle or vehicle platform generation to iterate upon instead of jumping into the void. It's also an occasion to have another go at the battery to be used and the per kWh cost the supplier will charge for those batteries.
Of course, there's no certainty in this. I'm not saying this will certainly happen. It's just that after thinking about this more recently, it's not something that I'd outright dismiss anymore, and I'm nerdy enough to want to talk the reasoning through on how likely this is.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-21-2020 at 12:25 PM..
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