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In 2029 expect the then current government, to declare 100% ZEV by 2040. We mean it this time.
I’m wondering if it might be virtually all new vehicle market share is ZEV by 2030. The way the battery prices have been dropping and how automakers are making a rapid shift in Europe and would want to recoup that investment makes it seem to me that the US’s new vehicle market will necessarily be heavily affected.
Ford has discontinued all car production except the Mustang, the rest of their production is pickup trucks. Even GM says their best selling products are their trucks and their cars production has been falling for years.
So my point is; how do you get people interested in EV's if they don't even want to drive a car of any type.
Another question I have is how would you drive an EV across country if every few hours you have to stop for a minimum of 1 hour but more likely several hours to recharge. I know the answer, no-one would drive an EV across country.
People here routinely drive 100 or more miles a day just to go to work, an EV won't work for them because one thing that nobody brings up about EV's is how much quicker does the battery discharge in 100 degree heat with the AC on full or in the winter when its 30 below and the use of the heat / defroster is necessary just to maintain your life.
Ford has discontinued all car production except the Mustang, the rest of their production is pickup trucks. Even GM says their best selling products are their trucks and their cars production has been falling for years.
So my point is; how do you get people interested in EV's if they don't even want to drive a car of any type.
Another question I have is how would you drive an EV across country if every few hours you have to stop for a minimum of 1 hour but more likely several hours to recharge. I know the answer, no-one would drive an EV across country.
People here routinely drive 100 or more miles a day just to go to work, an EV won't work for them because one thing that nobody brings up about EV's is how much quicker does the battery discharge in 100 degree heat with the AC on full or in the winter when its 30 below and the use of the heat / defroster is necessary just to maintain your life.
I think it’ll generally have to be electric CUVs, SUVs, and pickups. Even the “Mustang” Mach E is a crossover! Ford’s looking to release an electric F series in the next two years and the eight years to 2030 after that is generally enough time for a second generation to iterate on what they’ve learned from the first one.
I think the key on the long distance travel would be to not have to wait for a minimum of an hour. Certainly there are EVs today where you don’t wait an hour to charge, and I’d expect that to get better rather than worse. Think about how fast maximum charge rates were for 2010 compared to 2020. You’d expect at least some change from 2020 to 2030, wouldn’t you?
Right, extreme heat, and moreover, extreme cold does deplete a lot of energy. Having a heat pump helps with minimizing losses in cold weather, but what it’ll likely be is simply more battery capacity. If we’re talking about a drop for costs of battery to be less than a third of 2019 costs by 2030, then doubling the capacity of batteries for EVs today while still having a lower overall battery costs is pretty reasonable.
Lets consider the fact, that EV autos are not sold in wide areas of the USA. 50% has been reported of all EV sales are in California in about 4 areas of the state. Many areas of the country, this is not the case.
Here in Montana go to a parking lot, and 75%+ of all vehicles will be a Pickup or a SUV mid size and up. Not one EV of any type in the entire parking lot. Same for the majority of the USA, especially states in the middle of the country and mountain areas in the west and north.
Here in Montana we have charging stations on the Interstate (1 Interstate through the 4th largest state in the Union). This is for the tourists passing through.
When you consider that the latest figures available are 2018 and that the big EV state was California with about half of all EV sales, only had 7.8% of all vehicle sales, and the median half states above and half below EVs had less than 1% of the market does not say EV sales are so fantastic as so many on this thread seem to think. Your city may have some, but the majority of the country does not. I have never even seen a Montana licensed EV.
Lowest state EV sales was .22% for all Vehicle Sales.
I was just passing through but they weren't all that uncommon in Montana. Certainly not like California. Two of the big three pickups come, or will come, as a type of EV, Ford F150 next year and the RAM 1500 now. It's a big stretch since the RAM is a mild hybrid, but technical it qualifies. I wouldn't count it though.
How many people will buy the F159 HEV when it goes on sale is the bigger question. Particularly if it does okay in sales expect a PHEV sooner than later. Hard to say. The V8 in the F150 is dying fast, most people buy one of the two V6 options. That the HEV is only on the 3.5 V6 though, I doubt it will be a huge seller. Is Rivian or Workhorse going to sell well in Montana, or anywhere, probably not. Ford might though. Or it might not and just be as irrelevant in the long run as the old GM EV trucks from the mid 2000s.
Ford has discontinued all car production except the Mustang, the rest of their production is pickup trucks. Even GM says their best selling products are their trucks and their cars production has been falling for years.
So my point is; how do you get people interested in EV's if they don't even want to drive a car of any type.
You sell EVs in the form factors that people are buying. Like trucks and SUV/CUVs. And guess what? That's what's coming.
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Another question I have is how would you drive an EV across country if every few hours you have to stop for a minimum of 1 hour but more likely several hours to recharge. I know the answer, no-one would drive an EV across country.
Where do you get your information? I drive my Bolt for 4 hours and only use up half it's charge, I drove all over southern MD and northern VA down the Chesapeake and after 8 hours of driving I made it home with 50 miles to spare. If you can't stop for a half hour every 8 hours (and you should be only driving about 8 hours a day anyhow, even in a gas car) you're doing it wrong.. BTW, a Tesla or even a Bolt using DC fast charge, will do 80% of charge in 20 minutes. A rest stop every 6 hours for 20 minutes isn't bad at all and I know a lot of people that do that anyhow. I also know quite a few people that a have driven their Teslas across country using the existing supercharger network, which is getting expanded all the time. But really if you are doing cross country trips all the time you should be flying. It's much faster and more efficient. People just don't DO cross country road trips all the time even now. It's a fantasy that they do.,
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People here routinely drive 100 or more miles a day just to go to work, an EV won't work for them because one thing that nobody brings up about EV's is how much quicker does the battery discharge in 100 degree heat with the AC on full or in the winter when its 30 below and the use of the heat / defroster is necessary just to maintain your life.
People bring that up ALL THE TIME. My Bolt is rated at 258 miles of range, but I get most of that in the winter (at 0 degrees, I've seen as low as 220 miles) but you can preheat the car while plugged in so that you use very little battery power heating the car, just heated seats and steering wheel and maintain the preheated interior with very little energy use. In the summer, due to the way EV AC works, range is NOT negatively affected. It's been 100-102 degrees here for the last week and my Bolt still can get close to 300 miles of real world range. Again, one of the benefits is to pre-cool the car while plugged in, and then use very little energy maintaining that. I could commute 200 miles a day and still not have an issue in bitter winter or blazing summer. But if you're commuting 200 miles a day, you need to move closer to work or find a new job. 200 miles is from here in MD all the way to NYC. And NO ONE commutes like that. Most people, even in rural areas, live within 100 miles of everything they need in life. If you don't, you're an outlier pure and simple.
Remember, EVs are really popular in Scandinavian countries and winters there can get much colder than winters in the US. MOST US population lives near the coasts, not in the upper midwest or Alaska. Making cars for outliers now is not a priority, nor should it be.
I was just passing through but they weren't all that uncommon in Montana. Certainly not like California. Two of the big three pickups come, or will come, as a type of EV, Ford F150 next year and the RAM 1500 now. It's a big stretch since the RAM is a mild hybrid, but technical it qualifies. I wouldn't count it though.
How many people will buy the F159 HEV when it goes on sale is the bigger question. Particularly if it does okay in sales expect a PHEV sooner than later. Hard to say. The V8 in the F150 is dying fast, most people buy one of the two V6 options. That the HEV is only on the 3.5 V6 though, I doubt it will be a huge seller. Is Rivian or Workhorse going to sell well in Montana, or anywhere, probably not. Ford might though. Or it might not and just be as irrelevant in the long run as the old GM EV trucks from the mid 2000s.
Right, and GM has just released a roadmap of both a Hummer and Chevy pickup within the next few years. That would be a first generation for these with enough time for a second generation to be out by 2030. There’s also that Cybertruck oddball. Supposedly GM's full size electric pickup truck is to get 400+ miles of range to be released by 2023. That's 400+ miles of range without towing, and I'd expect that to be hit by quite a bit when towing at capacity. For that, they'll definitely need some top fast charging rates. Similarly, Ford stated last month that an electric F-150 in the works is due to be launched by the middle of 2022. Ford's doing on average about 5 years between generations for the F-Series, so that should be ample time for a second iteration of an electric pickup by 2030. Vehicles like full-size pickup trucks that are quite heavy and are sometimes used for carrying or towing heavy loads have a particularly noted benefit from regenerative braking. With two of the big three releasing full-size electric pickups within the next few years, it'd be odd if FCA doesn't release an electric RAM by 2030.
I’m not counting mild hybrids either because ultimately all its fuel still comes from the pump. Plugin hybrids are different in that they can conceivably derive much of their usage from plugging in. The RAV4 Prime is a good example of being mostly ZEV as it has an electric-only range that suffices for the majority of commutes. The same for the Ford Escape PHEV. The RAV4 Prime is going to be limited production for this year as Toyota was supposedly surprised by the level of demand—so much so that dealers are supposedly tacking on a heavy markup as demand is outstripping supplies. It also bodes well for a future EV-only RAV4 since a lot of the technologies can be ported over directly. It would seem like ten years to 2030 is enough time for Toyota to have a new generation of RAV4 as it seems like most vehicle “generations” last from five to eight years.
Montana actually just had a series of Tesla superchargers deployed in the last couple of months. The only state with really minimal area coverage for fast charging stations now is Alaska. That’s partially what I have in mind when I say virtually all of US new vehicle market share, because Alaska is oil-rich with very cold weather and small population centers that are quite a distance from each other and that’s a far outlier. Montana isn’t anywhere near as difficult for EVs to make a dent in the market in comparison. The other outlier is people who are commuting each day for over 100 miles each way (so over 200 miles a day of rane used) which also seems like a far outlier since the US average is supposedly at 16 miles each way for 32 miles per day. 200 miles a day honestly sounds like a horrendous daily commute to do by car, so I'm not sure if that even breaks into the single digits for percent of commuter distances. I've seen it for the NYC job market, but none of the daily supercommuters I've heard of do it by driving their own vehicles the whole way so I assume it has to be a pretty small percentage.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 09:01 AM..
Ford has discontinued all car production except the Mustang, the rest of their production is pickup trucks. Even GM says their best selling products are their trucks and their cars production has been falling for years.
So my point is; how do you get people interested in EV's if they don't even want to drive a car of any type.
Another question I have is how would you drive an EV across country if every few hours you have to stop for a minimum of 1 hour but more likely several hours to recharge. I know the answer, no-one would drive an EV across country.
People here routinely drive 100 or more miles a day just to go to work, an EV won't work for them because one thing that nobody brings up about EV's is how much quicker does the battery discharge in 100 degree heat with the AC on full or in the winter when its 30 below and the use of the heat / defroster is necessary just to maintain your life.
The millennials are not interested in car ownership. Too much work and expensive to maintain cars. Whenever I visit the car repair shops it's usually people older than 40. Rarely see anyone young these days. Add to that majority of those that use ride sharing are all young people. I don't see how car sales would increase. Trucks aren't sold to millennials that for sure it's too expensive and doesn't suit their taste.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Originally Posted by Bitey
Europe's regulatory environment is much more aggressively pushing automakers toward electrics. They're not doing it out of benevolent concern for the environment or in response to organic market demand. Neither the regulatory market nor the organic demand is strong enough here to to create a scenario where even a majority of sales are electrics, much less "almost entirely" electrics in just 9 model years. The vast expanses between population centers in some parts of the country and the lack of places for many urban dwellers to plug in while they park overnight on the streets make the logistics of going "almost entirely electric" by then pretty slim.
And then there's just the practical fact that batteries will never come anywhere close to competing with liquid fuels for energy density.
The good news is 90%+ of the infrastructure is already there since we have a thoroughly developed electrical grid reaching all populated corners of the country, be they urban or rural. All that's left to do now is to tap into the grid with charging stations.
That's all? Not an easy or cheap project. Owners of property (especially parking lots) have to agree to lose spaces, and to pay for them. There is no incentive for them until there is demand, and current EV growth is still not nearly enough to motivate them in most areas. Some people with an EV may eventually steer their shopping toward places with charging stations, but with more and more shopping done online it's just not a big concern unless you expect to be at a store for at least 1/2 hour. For us that would be rare, maybe sometimes Costco.
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