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Right, and GM has just released a roadmap of both a Hummer and Chevy pickup within the next few years. That would be a first generation for these with enough time for a second generation to be out by 2030. There’s also that Cybertruck oddball. Supposedly GM's full size electric pickup truck is to get 400+ miles of range to be released by 2023. That's 400+ miles of range without towing, and I'd expect that to be hit by quite a bit when towing at capacity. For that, they'll definitely need some top fast charging rates. Similarly, Ford stated last month that an electric F-150 in the works is due to be launched by the middle of 2022. Ford's doing on average about 5 years between generations for the F-Series, so that should be ample time for a second iteration of an electric pickup by 2030. Vehicles like full-size pickup trucks that are quite heavy and are sometimes used for carrying or towing heavy loads have a particularly noted benefit from regenerative braking. With two of the big three releasing full-size electric pickups within the next few years, it'd be odd if FCA doesn't release an electric RAM by 2030.
I’m not counting mild hybrids either because ultimately all its fuel still comes from the pump. Plugin hybrids are different in that they can conceivably derive much of their usage from plugging in. The RAV4 Prime is a good example of being mostly ZEV as it has an electric-only range that suffices for the majority of commutes. The same for the Ford Escape PHEV. The RAV4 Prime is going to be limited production for this year as Toyota was supposedly surprised by the level of demand—so much so that dealers are supposedly tacking on a heavy markup as demand is outstripping supplies. It also bodes well for a future EV-only RAV4 since a lot of the technologies can be ported over directly. It would seem like ten years to 2030 is enough time for Toyota to have a new generation of RAV4 as it seems like most vehicle “generations” last from five to eight years.
Montana actually just had a series of Tesla superchargers deployed in the last couple of months. The only state with really minimal area coverage for fast charging stations now is Alaska. That’s partially what I have in mind when I say virtually all of US new vehicle market share, because Alaska is oil-rich with very cold weather and small population centers that are quite a distance from each other and that’s a far outlier. Montana isn’t anywhere near as difficult for EVs to make a dent in the market in comparison. The other outlier is people who are commuting each day for over 100 miles each way (so over 200 miles a day of rane used) which also seems like a far outlier since the US average is supposedly at 16 miles each way for 32 miles per day. 200 miles a day honestly sounds like a horrendous daily commute to do by car, so I'm not sure if that even breaks into the single digits for percent of commuter distances. I've seen it for the NYC job market, but none of the daily supercommuters I've heard of do it by driving their own vehicles the whole way so I assume it has to be a pretty small percentage.
They'd planned on around 20,000 RAV4 Primes a year for the US market. First year will be lucky to get 5,000. It's not because of any demand issue like everyone in Japan clamored for one and so they took 15,000 they were going to send to the US and allocated them elsewhere. Allocation everywhere is being cut across the board. It's a production issue. They can't produce as many of them as they wanted to. But yeah, you won't be able to just pop into a dealership at random and get a RAV4 Prime for under MSRP like you can with the RAV4 Hybrid.
Montana just doesn't seem like a big Tesla market to me. It's a big F-150 market though... or rather the F-150 is big in the small Montana market to be more accurate. I doubt that for the 2021 generation the F-150 EVs (HEV, PHEV, and pure EV) will be big sellers. Probably more V8s than all types of EVs. For the generation after that though I'd be very surprised if the EVs don't outsell the V8. Heck, there might not even be a V8 in 2026/2027 or whenever the 15th Generation F-150 comes out. It's not like it sells all that well now.
They'd planned on around 20,000 RAV4 Primes a year for the US market. First year will be lucky to get 5,000. It's not because of any demand issue like everyone in Japan clamored for one and so they took 15,000 they were going to send to the US and allocated them elsewhere. Allocation everywhere is being cut across the board. It's a production issue. They can't produce as many of them as they wanted to. But yeah, you won't be able to just pop into a dealership at random and get a RAV4 Prime for under MSRP like you can with the RAV4 Hybrid.
Montana just doesn't seem like a big Tesla market to me. It's a big F-150 market though... or rather the F-150 is big in the small Montana market to be more accurate. I doubt that for the 2021 generation the F-150 EVs (HEV, PHEV, and pure EV) will be big sellers. Probably more V8s than all types of EVs. For the generation after that though I'd be very surprised if the EVs don't outsell the V8. Heck, there might not even be a V8 in 2026/2027 or whenever the 15th Generation F-150 comes out. It's not like it sells all that well now.
Right, it's a production / supply issue, though I'm not sure whether or not if it's at least partially from not expecting the level of demand and therefore not preparing for a larger production run. Toyota may have been genuinely surprised by the demand.
I don't think of Montana as a particularly big Tesla market nor a particularly big market in general, and you put it pretty squarely with the F-150 being big in the small Montana market. I also don't think the 2021 F-150 EVs are going to be a massive seller simply because battery prices today are still too high right now to offer F-150 EVs with good range while towing at a competitive price though it'll supposedly still be eligible for a large federal tax rebate. That's just simply too many kWhs that'll be necessary which would jack up the price with the other option being to not offer so much battery capacity to keep the price down--neither of which really works out so well. However, it is a good testbed for getting ready to take advantage of battery advancements price and energy density from now to 2030. I'd expect the second generation of F-150 EVs to be very good sellers if even the rather conservative estimates of getting down price per kWh to $60 from $156 in 2019 and energy densities to double rather than the near tripling that happened over the course of the 2010s.
Let’s say Ford does hold to a 2022 release for this first generation. Given what Ford has done with the F-series in the past, then that’s seven years which is generally enough time for a mid-cycle facelift and then an overhaul for a new generation. That’s similarly the case for about a half dozen pickup truck models give or take a year from either new startups or the established automakers.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 11:04 AM..
Right, it's a production / supply issue, though I'm not sure whether or not if it's at least partially from not expecting the level of demand and therefore not preparing for a larger production run. Toyota may have been genuinely surprised by the demand.
I don't think of Montana as a particularly big Tesla market nor a particularly big market in general, and you put it pretty squarely with the F-150 being big in the small Montana market. I also don't think the 2021 F-150 EVs are going to be a massive seller simply because battery prices today are still too high right now to offer F-150 EVs with good range while towing at a competitive price though it'll supposedly still be eligible for a large federal tax rebate. That's just simply too many kWhs that'll be necessary which would jack up the price with the other option being to not offer so much battery capacity to keep the price down--neither of which really works out so well. However, it is a good testbed for getting ready to take advantage of battery advancements price and energy density from now to 2030. I'd expect the second generation of F-150 EVs to be very good sellers if even the rather conservative estimates of getting down price per kWh to $60 from $156 in 2019 and energy densities to double rather than the near tripling that happened over the course of the 2010s.
Let’s say Ford does hold to a 2022 release for this first generation. Given what Ford has done with the F-series in the past, then that’s seven years which is generally enough time for a mid-cycle facelift and then an overhaul for a new generation. That’s similarly the case for about a half dozen pickup truck models give or take a year from either new startups or the established automakers.
Too many drawbacks with pure EVs, particularly for trucks. I'd like to be able to tow with a truck which is hell on gas mileage or EV range. Even toy trucks like the Rivian, too many draw backs. E.g., Lassen and Modoc discovery trails. There's nothing technical about them, but it's about 380 miles of mostly trails. I did all of Lassen in an Accord, which I wouldn't really recommend but it's doable depending on conditions. Some of the side excursions were definitely not. Forget chargers though. There's a couple gas stations that you only have to detour 20 miles or so to but that's about it. The appearance of off-road worthiness is important to a toy truck like a Rivian but the actual usability isn't great. Will there be a high speed charger in Moab for charging up the toy truck? Possibly. Tesla has one and it's Moab. Lassen or Modoc county though? I can't imagine Susanville or Alturas are high on the list of places Rivian intends to stick a charger for making their lifestyle trucks able to access those areas anytime in the near future. Tesla has a whole lotta nothing between Reno and Klammath Falls (250 miles), which doesn't live much range for doing anything but white knuckling range anxiety.
Too many drawbacks with pure EVs, particularly for trucks. I'd like to be able to tow with a truck which is hell on gas mileage or EV range. Even toy trucks like the Rivian, too many draw backs. E.g., Lassen and Modoc discovery trails. There's nothing technical about them, but it's about 380 miles of mostly trails. I did all of Lassen in an Accord, which I wouldn't really recommend but it's doable depending on conditions. Some of the side excursions were definitely not. Forget chargers though. There's a couple gas stations that you only have to detour 20 miles or so to but that's about it. The appearance of off-road worthiness is important to a toy truck like a Rivian but the actual usability isn't great. Will there be a high speed charger in Moab for charging up the toy truck? Possibly. Tesla has one and it's Moab. Lassen or Modoc county though? I can't imagine Susanville or Alturas are high on the list of places Rivian intends to stick a charger for making their lifestyle trucks able to access those areas anytime in the near future. Tesla has a whole lotta nothing between Reno and Klammath Falls (250 miles), which doesn't live much range for doing anything but white knuckling range anxiety.
This kind of stuff is why we're waiting to go EV until there's a charging infrastructure in place equivalent to the network of gas stations. I like the concept of EVs but we're a long road trip kind of household and I don't want to be scrambling to find a charging point when the car is down to 5% power.
It would be nice for me if that infrastructure was there by 2030 because that's probably going to be the replacement point for one of our vehicles.
Montana actually just had a series of Tesla superchargers deployed in the last couple of months.
The only state with really minimal area coverage for fast charging stations now is Alaska.
That’s partially what I have in mind when I say virtually all of US new vehicle market share, because (1)Alaska is oil-rich (2) with very cold weather and (3)small population centers that are quite a distance from each other and that’s a far outlier.
Same on all those points for Montana. We are 4th largest state, with only 1,000,000 people total, with more cows than people. Plus a lot of mountains, with lots of snow which is the reason over 75% of vehicles in parking lots will be mid size pickups and SUVs.
Montana isn’t anywhere near as difficult for EVs to make a dent in the market in comparison. The other outlier is people who are commuting each day for over 100 miles each way (so over 200 miles a day of rane used) which also seems like a far outlier since the US average is supposedly at 16 miles each way for 32 miles per day. 200 miles a day honestly sounds like a horrendous daily commute to do by car, so I'm not sure if that even breaks into the single digits for percent of commuter distances. I've seen it for the NYC job market, but none of the daily supercommuters I've heard of do it by driving their own vehicles the whole way so I assume it has to be a pretty small percentage.
In Montana the super commuters drive the whole way, as that is the only way available.
You are not considering that in much of the country, the EV is not making any real inroads.
The USA median number for all states the EV ownership is only .22% of all vehicles and that includes the heavy EV states.
Too many drawbacks with pure EVs, particularly for trucks. I'd like to be able to tow with a truck which is hell on gas mileage or EV range. Even toy trucks like the Rivian, too many draw backs. E.g., Lassen and Modoc discovery trails. There's nothing technical about them, but it's about 380 miles of mostly trails. I did all of Lassen in an Accord, which I wouldn't really recommend but it's doable depending on conditions. Some of the side excursions were definitely not. Forget chargers though. There's a couple gas stations that you only have to detour 20 miles or so to but that's about it. The appearance of off-road worthiness is important to a toy truck like a Rivian but the actual usability isn't great. Will there be a high speed charger in Moab for charging up the toy truck? Possibly. Tesla has one and it's Moab. Lassen or Modoc county though? I can't imagine Susanville or Alturas are high on the list of places Rivian intends to stick a charger for making their lifestyle trucks able to access those areas anytime in the near future. Tesla has a whole lotta nothing between Reno and Klammath Falls (250 miles), which doesn't live much range for doing anything but white knuckling range anxiety.
Right, that makes sense for what’s out now and what’s projected to be out in the next couple of years. Maybe the Cybertruck on its top trim can do 380 miles of mostly trails since it’s targeting 500+ miles range, but that’s a real pretty penny to spend. However, that’s the current first generation of electric pickups, whereas 2030 should ostensibly be well into the second generation of electric pickups. SR 139 between Klamath Falls and Reno has three superchargers targeted for 2020 opening at Susanville, Adin, and Newell. On the way to Lassen from Reno is a targeted 2020 opening supercharger in Greenville. If those don’t hit it this year, then it’s not too crazy to do so well before 2030.
I think the charger part isn’t really the tricky part since any place with an electrical grid connection could have a charger put in, possibly with a stationary battery pack and/or solar panels so as to put too heavy of a load spurt on the grid. The part that’s tricky is having long range EVs for sale at a competitive or better price than an ICE counterpart so as to have enough a base where people actually bother to install and run fast charging stations. That’s why I’m now wondering if it’s going to be sooner than I expected because battery price drops have been faster than expected. 87% reduction of dollars per kWh over the 2010s and another 61% price reduction conservative projection over the course of the 2020s is a lot more range and battery capacity that can be tacked on to a vehicle without blowing out the cost.
Let’s do a walk through the numbers and let me know what’s the weakest or unbelievable parts. Average battery costs were $156 per kWh in 2019. The Cybertruck supposedly will have 500+ miles of range from what’s likely to be a 250 kWh battery pack. It won’t be the most efficient since it’s a lot of battery weight though the larger battery pack should allow a much faster top charging kW rate. At 2019 battery prices, a 250 kWh pack is about $39K. That’s a massive amount of money going into the pack. With the conservative $60 per kWh projection for 2030, that pack then costs $15K instead. Moreover, that same pack with a doubling of energy density would weigh substantially less, so you’re actual total range and efficiency with the same 250 kWh capacity would be substantially better. I’ll note that I sincerely doubt Tesla would able to do a 250 kWh pack for anything close to the $80K sticker price with battery prices at $156 per kWh. Those are 2019 prices, and I’d expect they’d have to have brought that down substantially by the time of the Cybertruck’s release in a couple of years from now. I think the largest issue with my argument is that it’s a projection, which even if a conservative one that’s far less of an improvement for the 2020s than we saw in the 2010s, is still just a projection.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 06:00 PM..
You are not considering that in much of the country, the EV is not making any real inroads.
The USA median number for all states the EV ownership is only .22% of all vehicles and that includes the heavy EV states.
Montana is not nearly the size or spread of Alaska nor is the winter nearly as cold save for the relatively moderate Alaskan panhandle. Montana also isn’t a particularly oil rich. The two are on different scales here. Montana’s population density is 6 times denser than Alaska’s. I believe Montana is also an outlier for the most part, and the combined population of these two states is about half a percent of the US population, but we’re not really talking about the same league for Alaska and Montana.
I’m sure people who are supercommuters in Montana drive the whole way, but is supercommuting really what people do in Montana? Do the majority of the people you know in Montana have a *daily* commute of 200+ miles in a personal vehicle (i.e. not long haul truckers)? Not just one person, but a majority? What proportion of the people you know in Montana are we really talking about here? US census estimates from 2018 had 1.675% of Montana commuters as supercommuters, and while it’s possible that your personal social circle consists of a much, much higher percentage than that, it’s certainly by no means common in Montana.
I said *new* vehicle sales for 2030. Fact of the matter is, the US has a high median age for its vehicle fleet, and even if virtually all new vehicle sales were EVs, the majority of the total US vehicle fleet will still be powered by combustion engines.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 05:50 PM..
"Almost entirely"? No I don't think so. I think there's a good chance that EVs may be the dominant seller in another 10 years, but before EVS are virtually the entire new vehicle market? I think that's *at least* 20 years off...and it could be more. Even when most of the downsides of EVs are eliminated, I think ICE vehicles will "have a long tail". Some people will just prefer them, just because.
That thread was about the future of EVs in the US. Your prediction was 50% of new cars sold in the US would be EV in 10 years (2028). So yes, 50% is preposterous.
THIS thread is about 50% plugins (I'm assuming ZEV is plug in hybrids and EVs, correct me if I'm wrong and not EV only). And sales in the world, not just the US.
It may be possible that ZEV sales may reach 50% in certain countries. That would be because it is mandated by the government and not because people have a choice. However, it is unlikely it will happen in the US, certainly not before 2030.
As I said before in a previous thread, there is an implicit assumption that as the cost of the battery pack goes down, the costs of an EV will go down. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Let's assume that the cost of a battery pack goes down by $4k. The manufacturers will absorb those savings. The federal rebates will eventually go away. EVs are not profitable now and the lower battery cost may (we'll see) enable the auto manufacturers to break even on the EVs. The prices will still be higher than similar ICE cars. That is an impediment to widespread EV purchases. That plus the other points already mentioned will probably put 50% EV purchases in the US out well beyond 2030. Don't even think it will be 50% ZEV.
No OyCrumbler has an open mind to logic and opposing viewpoints. You are merely a sycophant. You are the one who also predicted a 50% crash in ICE resale values in 10 years. One year has passed already and no signs yet...I know you were hoping that would happen with COVID-19. How sad.
Last edited by Vic Romano; 07-20-2020 at 09:40 PM..
That thread was about the future of EVs in the US. Your prediction was 50% of new cars sold in the US would be EV in 10 years (2028). So yes, 50% is preposterous.
THIS thread is about 50% plugins (I'm assuming ZEV is plug in hybrids and EVs, correct me if I'm wrong and not EV only). And sales in the world, not just the US.
It may be possible that ZEV sales may reach 50% in certain countries. That would be because it is mandated by the government and not because people have a choice. However, it is unlikely it will happen in the US, certainly not before 2030.
As I said before in a previous thread, there is an implicit assumption that as the cost of the battery pack goes down, the costs of an EV will go down. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Let's assume that the cost of a battery pack goes down by $4k. The manufacturers will absorb those savings. The federal rebates will eventually go away. EVs are not profitable now and the lower battery cost may (we'll see) enable the auto manufacturers to break even on the EVs. The prices will still be higher than similar ICE cars. That is an impediment to widespread EV purchases. That plus the other points already mentioned will probably put 50% EV purchases in the US out well beyond 2030. Don't even think it will be 50% ZEV.
No OyCrumbler has an open mind to logic and opposing viewpoints. You are merely a sycophant. You are the one who also predicted a 50% crash in ICE resale values in 10 years. One year has passed already and no signs yet...I know you were hoping that would happen with COVID-19. How sad.
I assumed 'ZEV' means zero-emissions vehicle, which would exclude plug-in hybrids. I wonder if OP meant BEV (battery electric) instead of ZEV?
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