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There is no possible way the electrical grid can accommodate an additional 17 million new electrical vehicles annually. No possible way.
Right now people buy a quarter of a million electric vehicles per year. If that were to jump 70-fold to 16 million in 10 years, the grid would be swamped.
We would need a flood of new charging station. Charging stations would have to charge cars much faster.
Go to any gas station in your area. Sit there an hour and watch how many cars fill up and leave. Now imagine if every one of them took at least 1 hour to fill up. That is about how fast the fastest Tesla charges.
The very idea that we could handle an additional 17 million new electric vehicles per year is flat insane. It is comical.
To help others not into the XYZ, how about initially explain what the acronym of "ZEV" stands for?
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ZEV = Zero Emission Vehicle, which for now is 90% electric and most of the rest of that is propane, since we don't really have many hydrogen fuel cell vehicles yet.
Today, propane powered vehicles are actually very pratical and could be produced in large numbers, easily fueled, get good range, and could be used for government and utility fleets very easily. The problem is, the Global Warming fearful hate carbon based fuels because they produce plant food, or Carbon Dioxide (CO2).
Lets consider the fact, that EV autos are not sold in wide areas of the USA. 50% has been reported of all EV sales are in California in about 4 areas of the state. Many areas of the country, this is not the case.
Here in Montana go to a parking lot, and 75%+ of all vehicles will be a Pickup or a SUV mid size and up. Not one EV of any type in the entire parking lot. Same for the majority of the USA, especially states in the middle of the country and mountain areas in the west and north.
Here in Montana we have charging stations on the Interstate (1 Interstate through the 4th largest state in the Union). This is for the tourists passing through.
When you consider that the latest figures available are 2018 and that the big EV state was California with about half of all EV sales, only had 7.8% of all vehicle sales, and the median half states above and half below EVs had less than 1% of the market does not say EV sales are so fantastic as so many on this thread seem to think. Your city may have some, but the majority of the country does not. I have never even seen a Montana licensed EV.
Lowest state EV sales was .22% for all Vehicle Sales.
As much talk as there is in Europe to push EV production, the big hangup is that a large percentage of the population is urban. A huge percentage of the urban population don't live in single family homes, they live in dense multi-unit, multi-story buildings. And a huge percentage don't have a dedicated off street parking place, if they own a car at all. They park the little cars whereever a space can be found. The only way to re-charge is if pay charging stations are set up like parking meters along curbs all over these cities. The task of doing that would be mind-boggling.
I have an apartment near Leipzig, Germany and don't have a car of my own. I subscribe to a regional car-sharing service that has a fleet parking lot just down the street from my apartment building. A smart phone app lets me see what cars are available in the lot, and I can reserve it in a few seconds. I show up and drive away. The car sharing service recently installed charging stations at some of the fleet parking lots, and is going to put more at all of the lots within the next year or two. Then they will start swapping out more and more of the gasoline powered cars for EVs. They will still have some gas powered cars to use, for people needing a car for multiple days, beyond the typical range of the EV.
I hope Europe realizes that when OPEC starts selling less oil that's it's eventually going to put the whole Middle East region into chaos. They need the oil revenue to prop up their governments and support their populations since they really don't have anything else. You can bet there will be a flood of refugees heading to Europe when that happens.
There is no possible way the electrical grid can accommodate an additional 17 million new electrical vehicles annually. No possible way.
Right now people buy a quarter of a million electric vehicles per year. If that were to jump 70-fold to 16 million in 10 years, the grid would be swamped.
We would need a flood of new charging station. Charging stations would have to charge cars much faster.
Go to any gas station in your area. Sit there an hour and watch how many cars fill up and leave. Now imagine if every one of them took at least 1 hour to fill up. That is about how fast the fastest Tesla charges.
The very idea that we could handle an additional 17 million new electric vehicles per year is flat insane. It is comical.
Yea, there’d have to be a massive expansion of our electrical generation capabilities over the course of the next couple of decades which will be tricky. I do think there’d be good reason to be skeptical on that front, but I also don’t see that being a killer. If there’s a steady increase of demand for electricity, then why wouldn’t the market be able to adjust for that?
The charging station seems like much less of an issue since a majority of people can likely charge at home rather than at dedicated charging stations and the fast EV charging stations are a lot more flexible in regards to where they could be placed than gas stations. I’ve seen these in parking garages and parking lots, so that doesn’t seem terribly problematic.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 05:32 AM..
I hope Europe realizes that when OPEC starts selling less oil that's it's eventually going to put the whole Middle East region into chaos. They need the oil revenue to prop up their governments and support their populations since they really don't have anything else. You can bet there will be a flood of refugees heading to Europe when that happens.
It’s questionable how much instability there would have been if there wasn’t the massive dependence on oil. Besides, a decade for new vehicle market share in the US and Europe to go almost completely ZEV still means a fairly gradual slump since there are still going to be old vehicles, other countries, and other applications for oil.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 05:34 AM..
There is no possible way the electrical grid can accommodate an additional 17 million new electrical vehicles annually. No possible way.
Right now people buy a quarter of a million electric vehicles per year. If that were to jump 70-fold to 16 million in 10 years, the grid would be swamped.
We would need a flood of new charging station. Charging stations would have to charge cars much faster.
Go to any gas station in your area. Sit there an hour and watch how many cars fill up and leave. Now imagine if every one of them took at least 1 hour to fill up. That is about how fast the fastest Tesla charges.
The very idea that we could handle an additional 17 million new electric vehicles per year is flat insane. It is comical.
No, it's not. Southern California Edison did a study that showed they could handle replacing half the Claifornia cars with EVs right now and not have an issue, as they tend to charge at night when demand is very low and the electrical plants normally are turned down. This would make the plants more efficient and actually load balance the current grid. It's similar across the country. Manufacturers CANNOT switch overnight to all EV production and are not even tolling up for overnight production of only EVs, so the grid has MORE than enough time to "catch up" to a world where most new cars are EVs. And in places like California or Texas, home solar charging of the EVs is a realistic possibility and many people are already doing just that. Even in my home state of MD, solar charging is a viable proposition, no grid up grades necessary.
realistically, it'll take decades for EV production to hit100% of new cars, due to the realities of manufacturing, and especially the lead times it takes to tool up for cars. There will be more than enough time for the grid to accommodate that. So exclaiming loudly that the grid NOW can't accommodate full EV production is at best a red herring and at worst evil fear mongering by the oil lobby.
That’s an average battery price drop from north of $1,100 per kiloWatt-hour, which is a measure of storage capacity, in 2010 to $156 per kWh. That’s a 87% reduction in battery costs over the course of the 2010s. Let’s say the average efficiency of an EV is around 3 miles per kWh for real world usage. For a pack that goes 300 miles then, we’re talking about 100 kWh and ~$15.6K for just the battery pack on a 300 mile EV in 2019.
The article I posted thinks $60 per kWh is a pretty safe baseline for average battery costs by 2030. That’s a much less substantial reduction in battery costs than the decade before, but let’s just usr that to be on the safe side. Meanwhile, battery price reductions partially stem from increased battery density and general performance which means increased efficiency, so let’s say average efficiency goes up to about 4 miles per kWh which is a figure that some vehicles already started hitting in 2019. For a pack that yields 300 miles, then we’re talking about needing 75 kWh. At a $60 per kWh baseline, then a battery pack for 300 miles in 2030 costs ~$4,500. That’s less than a third of what was needed in 2019. That’s taking over $10K off the price of EVs which would make then make essentially every EV of relatively recent models today undercut their nearest ICE competitor at sticker price, but is also generally cheaper to maintain and operate as well. It would seem like it’d be an obvious economic decision for consumers at that point.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-20-2020 at 07:07 AM..
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